Effect of Short-term and High-resolution Load Forecasting Errors on Microgrid Operation Costs

Antoniadou-Plytaria, Kyriaki,1989Chalmers tekniska högskola,Chalmers University of Technology (författare)

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the effect of the load forecasting errors to the operation costs of a grid-connected microgrid. To this end, a microgrid energy scheduling optimization model was tested with deterministic and stochastic formulations under two solution approaches i.e., day-ahead and rolling horizon optimization. In total, twelve simulation test cases were designed receiving as input the forecasts provided by one of the three implemented machine learning models: linear regression, artificial neural network with backpropagation, and long short-term memory. Simulation results of the weekly operation of a real residential building (HSB Living Lab) showed no significant differences among the costs of the test cases for a daily mean absolute percentage forecast error of about 12%. These results suggest that operators of similar microgrid systems could use simplifying approaches, such as day-ahead deterministic optimization, and forecasts of similar, non-negligible accuracy without substantially affecting the microgrid's total cost as compared to the ideal case of perfect forecast. Improving the accuracy would mainly reduce the microgrid's peak power cost as shown by its 20.2% increase in comparison to the ideal case.

Eriksson, LudvigChalmers tekniska högskola,Chalmers University of Technology (författare)
Johansson, JakobChalmers tekniska högskola,Chalmers University of Technology (författare)
Johnsson, RichardChalmers tekniska högskola,Chalmers University of Technology (författare)
Kötz, LasseChalmers tekniska högskola,Chalmers University of Technology (författare)
Lamm, JohanChalmers tekniska högskola,Chalmers University of Technology (författare)
Lundblad, EllinorChalmers tekniska högskola,Chalmers University of Technology (författare)
Steen, David,1983Chalmers tekniska högskola,Chalmers University of Technology(Swepub:cth)davste (författare)
Le, Anh Tuan,1974Chalmers tekniska högskola,Chalmers University of Technology(Swepub:cth)tuan (författare)
Carlson, Ola,1955Chalmers tekniska högskola,Chalmers University of Technology(Swepub:cth)ola (författare)
Chalmers tekniska högskola (creator_code:org_t)

Ingår i:IEEE PES Innovative Smart Grid Technologies Conference Europe2022-October9781665480321

Av författaren/redakt...: Antoniadou-Plyta ...; Eriksson, Ludvig; Johansson, Jakob; Johnsson, Richar ...; Kötz, Lasse; Lamm, Johan; visa fler...; Lundblad, Ellino ...; Steen, David, 19 ...; Le, Anh Tuan, 19 ...; Carlson, Ola, 19 ...; visa färre...

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