Dynamic Water Balance Modelling for Risk Assessment and Decision Support on MAR Potential in Botswana

• Botswana experiences a water stressed situation due to the climate and a continuously increasing water demand. Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) is considered, among other measures, to improve the situation. To evaluate the possibility for increased water supply security, a probabilistic and dynamic water supply security model was developed. Statistically generated time series of source water availability are used in combination with the dynamic storages in dams and aquifers, and the possible supply is compared with the demand to simulate the magnitude and probability of water supply shortages. The model simulates the system and possible mitigation measures from 2013 to 2035 (23 years), using one-month time steps. The original system is not able to meet the demand, and the estimated volumetric supply reliability in the year 2035 is 0.51. An additional surface water dam (now implemented) will increase the reliability to 0.88 but there will still be a significant water shortage problem. Implementing large-scale MAR can further improve the reliability to at least 0.95. System properties limiting the effect of MAR are identified using the model and show how to further improve the effect of MAR. The case study results illustrate the importance and benefit of using an integrated approach, including time-dependence and future scenarios, when evaluating the need and potential of MAR.

Ämnesord

TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER  -- Samhällsbyggnadsteknik (hsv//swe)

ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY  -- Civil Engineering (hsv//eng)

TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER  -- Samhällsbyggnadsteknik -- Vattenteknik (hsv//swe)

ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY  -- Civil Engineering -- Water Engineering (hsv//eng)

NATURVETENSKAP  -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Annan geovetenskap och miljövetenskap (hsv//swe)

NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Other Earth and Related Environmental Sciences (hsv//eng)

TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER  -- Naturresursteknik -- Annan naturresursteknik (hsv//swe)

ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY  -- Environmental Engineering -- Other Environmental Engineering (hsv//eng)

TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER  -- Naturresursteknik -- Miljöledning (hsv//swe)

ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY  -- Environmental Engineering -- Environmental Management (hsv//eng)

NATURVETENSKAP  -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Miljövetenskap (hsv//swe)

NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Environmental Sciences (hsv//eng)

Nyckelord

dynamic

decision support

integrated water resource management

probabilistic

managed aquifer recharge

water supply security model

risk assessment

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