Spatio-temporal modelling of wind speed variations and extremes in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico

• The wind speed variability in the North Atlantic has been successfully modelled using a spatio-temporal transformed Gaussian field. However, this type of model does not correctly describe the extreme wind speeds attributed to tropical storms and hurricanes. In this study, the transformed Gaussian model is further developed to include the occurrence of severe storms. In this new model, random components are added to the transformed Gaussian field to model rare events with extreme wind speeds. The resulting random field is locally stationary and homogeneous. The localized dependence structure is described by time- and space-dependent parameters. The parameters have a natural physical interpretation. To exemplify its application, the model is fitted to the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis data set. The model is applied to compute longterm wind speed distributions and return values, e.g., 100- or 1000-year extreme wind speeds, and to simulate random wind speed time series at a fixed location or spatio-temporal wind fields around that location.

Ämnesord

TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER  -- Naturresursteknik -- Havs- och vattendragsteknik (hsv//swe)

ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY  -- Environmental Engineering -- Ocean and River Engineering (hsv//eng)

TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER  -- Naturresursteknik -- Marin teknik (hsv//swe)

ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY  -- Environmental Engineering -- Marine Engineering (hsv//eng)

NATURVETENSKAP  -- Matematik -- Sannolikhetsteori och statistik (hsv//swe)

NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Mathematics -- Probability Theory and Statistics (hsv//eng)

Nyckelord

extreme prediction

spatio-temporal model

wind speed

laplace moving average

transformed gaussian model

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