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  • Kjellander, OskarSwedish University of Agricultural Sciences,Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet,Institutionen för ekologi,Department of Ecology (author)

Predicting and mapping human risk of exposure to Ixodes ricinus nymphs using climatic and environmental data, Denmark, Norway and Sweden, 2016

  • Article/chapterEnglish2019

Publisher, publication year, extent ...

  • 2019
  • European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control,2024

Numbers

  • LIBRIS-ID:oai:slubar.slu.se:99086
  • https://res.slu.se/id/publ/99086URI
  • https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2019.24.9.1800101DOI

Supplementary language notes

  • Language:English
  • Summary in:English

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  • Subject category:ref swepub-contenttype
  • Subject category:art swepub-publicationtype

Notes

  • Background: Tick-borne diseases have become increasingly common in recent decades and present a health problem in many parts of Europe. Control and prevention of these diseases require a better understanding of vector distribution. Aim: Our aim was to create a model able to predict the distribution of Ixodes ricinus nymphs in southern Scandinavia and to assess how this relates to risk of human exposure. Methods: We measured the presence of I. ricinus tick nymphs at 159 stratified random lowland forest and meadow sites in Denmark, Norway and Sweden by dragging 400 m transects from August to September 2016, representing a total distance of 63.6 km. Using climate and remote sensing environmental data and boosted regression tree modelling, we predicted the overall spatial distribution of I. ricinus nymphs in Scandinavia. To assess the potential public health impact, we combined the predicted tick distribution with human density maps to determine the proportion of people at risk. Results: Our model predicted the spatial distribution of I. ricinus nymphs with a sensitivity of 91% and a specificity of 60%. Temperature was one of the main drivers in the model followed by vegetation cover. Nymphs were restricted to only 17.5% of the modelled area but, respectively, 73.5%, 67.1% and 78.8% of the human populations lived within 5 km of these areas in Denmark, Norway and Sweden. Conclusion: The model suggests that increasing temperatures in the future may expand tick distribution geographically in northern Europe, but this may only affect a small additional proportion of the human population.

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  • Christensson, MadeleineSwedish University of Agricultural Sciences,Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet,Institutionen för ekologi,Department of Ecology(Swepub:slu)93298 (author)
  • Teräväinen, MalinSwedish University of Agricultural Sciences,Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet,Institutionen för ekologi,Department of Ecology(Swepub:slu)102743 (author)
  • Sveriges lantbruksuniversitetInstitutionen för ekologi (creator_code:org_t)
  • Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet

Related titles

  • In:Eurosurveillance24, s. 35-451560-7917

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NATURAL SCIENCES
NATURAL SCIENCES
and Biological Scien ...
and Ecology
MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES
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and Health Sciences
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Eurosurveillance
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Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences

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