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Bayesian outbreak detection in the presence of reporting delays

Salmon, Maelle (author)
Schumacher, Dirk (author)
Stark, Klaus (author)
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Höhle, Michael (author)
Stockholms universitet,Matematiska institutionen
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 (creator_code:org_t)
2015-08-06
2015
English.
In: Biometrical Journal. - : Wiley. - 0323-3847 .- 1521-4036. ; 57:6, s. 1051-1067
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)
Abstract Subject headings
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  • One use of infectious disease surveillance systems is the statistical aberration detection performed on time series of counts resulting from the aggregation of individual case reports. However, inherent reporting delays in such surveillance systems make the considered time series incomplete, which can be an impediment to the timely detection and thus to the containment of emerging outbreaks. In this work, we synthesize the outbreak detection algorithms of Noufaily etal.(2013) and Manitz and Hohle(2013) while additionally addressing right truncation caused by reporting delays. We do so by considering the resulting time series as an incomplete two-way contingency table which we model using negative binomial regression. Our approach is defined in a Bayesian setting allowing a direct inclusion of all sources of uncertainty in the derivation of whether an observed case count is to be considered an aberration. The proposed algorithm is evaluated both on simulated data and on the time series of Salmonella Newport cases in Germany in 2011. Altogether, our method aims at allowing timely aberration detection in the presence of reporting delays and hence underlines the need for statistical modeling to address complications of reporting systems. An implementation of the proposed method is made available in the R package surveillance as the function bodaDelay.

Subject headings

NATURVETENSKAP  -- Biologi (hsv//swe)
NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Biological Sciences (hsv//eng)
NATURVETENSKAP  -- Matematik (hsv//swe)
NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Mathematics (hsv//eng)

Keyword

Bayesian inference
Infectious diseases
INLA
Reporting delays
Surveillance

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Salmon, Maelle
Schumacher, Dirk
Stark, Klaus
Höhle, Michael
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NATURAL SCIENCES
NATURAL SCIENCES
and Biological Scien ...
NATURAL SCIENCES
NATURAL SCIENCES
and Mathematics
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Biometrical Jour ...
By the university
Stockholm University

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