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Predictors of diagnostic conversion from major depression to bipolar disorder : A Swedish national longitudinal study
- Rhee, Sang Jin (author)
-
- Ohlsson, Henrik (author)
- Lund University,Lunds universitet,Allmänmedicin och klinisk epidemiologi,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,Family Medicine and Clinical Epidemiology,Lund University Research Groups
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- Sundquist, Jan (author)
- Lund University,Lunds universitet,Allmänmedicin och klinisk epidemiologi,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,Family Medicine and Clinical Epidemiology,Lund University Research Groups,Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai
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- 2023
- 2023
- English.
- In: Psychological Medicine. - 0033-2917. ; 53:16, s. 7805-7816
- Journal article (peer-reviewed)
Abstract
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- Background It is clinically important to predict the conversion of major depression (MD) to bipolar disorder (BD). Therefore, we sought to identify related conversion rates and risk factors. Methods This cohort study included the Swedish population born from 1941 onward. Data were collected from Swedish population-based registers. Potential risk factors, including family genetic risk scores (FGRS), which were calculated based on the phenotypes of relatives in the extended family and not molecular data, and demographic/clinical characteristics from these registers were retrieved. Those with first MD registrations from 2006 were followed up until 2018. The conversion rate to BD and related risk factors were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards models. Additional analyses were performed for late converters and with stratification by sex. Results The cumulative incidence of conversion was 5.84% [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 5.72-5.96] for 13 years. In the multivariable analysis, the strongest risk factors for conversion were high FGRS of BD [hazard ratio (HR) = 2.73, 95% CI 2.43-3.08], inpatient treatment settings (HR = 2.64, 95% CI 2.44-2.84), and psychotic depression (HR = 2.58, 95% CI 2.14-3.11). For late converters, the first registration of MD during the teenage years was a stronger risk factor when compared with the baseline model. When the interactions between risk factors and sex were significant, stratification by sex revealed that they were more predictive in females. Conclusions Family history of BD, inpatient treatment, and psychotic symptoms were the strongest predictors of conversion from MD to BD.
Subject headings
- MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP -- Klinisk medicin -- Psykiatri (hsv//swe)
- MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES -- Clinical Medicine -- Psychiatry (hsv//eng)
Keyword
- Bipolar disorder
- conversion
- family genetic risk scores
- major depression
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- art (subject category)
- ref (subject category)
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