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Sökning: WFRF:(Armour Kyle) > (2022) > On the Effect of Hi...

LIBRIS Formathandbok  (Information om MARC21)
FältnamnIndikatorerMetadata
00003894naa a2200577 4500
001oai:DiVA.org:su-210222
003SwePub
008221014s2022 | |||||||||||000 ||eng|
0247 a https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-2102222 URI
0247 a https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD0366752 DOI
040 a (SwePub)su
041 a engb eng
042 9 SwePub
072 7a ref2 swepub-contenttype
072 7a art2 swepub-publicationtype
1001 a Andrews, Timothy4 aut
2451 0a On the Effect of Historical SST Patterns on Radiative Feedback
264 1c 2022
338 a print2 rdacarrier
520 a We investigate the dependence of radiative feedback on the pattern of sea-surface temperature (SST) change in 14 Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCMs) forced with observed variations in SST and sea-ice over the historical record from 1871 to near-present. We find that over 1871–1980, the Earth warmed with feedbacks largely consistent and strongly correlated with long-term climate sensitivity feedbacks (diagnosed from corresponding atmosphere-ocean GCM abrupt-4xCO2 simulations). Post 1980, however, the Earth warmed with unusual trends in tropical Pacific SSTs (enhanced warming in the west, cooling in the east) and cooling in the Southern Ocean that drove climate feedback to be uncorrelated with—and indicating much lower climate sensitivity than—that expected for long-term CO2 increase. We show that these conclusions are not strongly dependent on the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) II SST data set used to force the AGCMs, though the magnitude of feedback post 1980 is generally smaller in nine AGCMs forced with alternative HadISST1 SST boundary conditions. We quantify a “pattern effect” (defined as the difference between historical and long-term CO2 feedback) equal to 0.48 ± 0.47 [5%–95%] W m−2 K−1 for the time-period 1871–2010 when the AGCMs are forced with HadISST1 SSTs, or 0.70 ± 0.47 [5%–95%] W m−2 K−1 when forced with AMIP II SSTs. Assessed changes in the Earth's historical energy budget agree with the AGCM feedback estimates. Furthermore satellite observations of changes in top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes since 1985 suggest that the pattern effect was particularly strong over recent decades but may be waning post 2014.
650 7a NATURVETENSKAPx Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap0 (SwePub)1052 hsv//swe
650 7a NATURAL SCIENCESx Earth and Related Environmental Sciences0 (SwePub)1052 hsv//eng
653 a climate feedback
653 a pattern effect
653 a climate sensitivity
653 a climate models
653 a observations
653 a historical record
7001 a Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro4 aut
7001 a Gregory, Jonathan M.4 aut
7001 a Dong, Yue4 aut
7001 a Armour, Kyle C.4 aut
7001 a Paynter, David4 aut
7001 a Lin, Pu4 aut
7001 a Modak, Angshumanu Stockholms universitet,Meteorologiska institutionen (MISU)4 aut0 (Swepub:su)moan3315
7001 a Mauritsen, Thorstenu Stockholms universitet,Meteorologiska institutionen (MISU)4 aut0 (Swepub:su)tmaur
7001 a Cole, Jason N. S.4 aut
7001 a Medeiros, Brian4 aut
7001 a Benedict, James J.4 aut
7001 a Douville, Hervé4 aut
7001 a Roehrig, Romain4 aut
7001 a Koshiro, Tsuyoshi4 aut
7001 a Kawai, Hideaki4 aut
7001 a Ogura, Tomoo4 aut
7001 a Dufresne, Jean-Louis4 aut
7001 a Allan, Richard P.4 aut
7001 a Liu, Chunlei4 aut
7102 a Stockholms universitetb Meteorologiska institutionen (MISU)4 org
7730 t Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheresg 127:18q 127:18x 2169-897Xx 2169-8996
8564 8u https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-210222
8564 8u https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD036675

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