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LIBRIS Formathandbok  (Information om MARC21)
FältnamnIndikatorerMetadata
00003543naa a2200397 4500
001oai:DiVA.org:umu-88057
003SwePub
008140422s2014 | |||||||||||000 ||eng|
0247 a https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-880572 URI
0247 a https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.13020891112 DOI
040 a (SwePub)umu
041 a engb eng
042 9 SwePub
072 7a ref2 swepub-contenttype
072 7a art2 swepub-publicationtype
1001 a Caminade, Cyril4 aut
2451 0a Impact of climate change on global malaria distribution
264 c 2014-02-03
264 1b Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,c 2014
338 a print2 rdacarrier
520 a Malaria is an important disease that has a global distribution and significant health burden. The spatial limits of its distribution and seasonal activity are sensitive to climate factors, as well as the local capacity to control the disease. Malaria is also one of the few health outcomes that has been modeled by more than one research group and can therefore facilitate the first model intercomparison for health impacts under a future with climate change. We used bias-corrected temperature and rainfall simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models to compare the metrics of five statistical and dynamical malaria impact models for three future time periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). We evaluated three malaria outcome metrics at global and regional levels: climate suitability, additional population at risk and additional person-months at risk across the model outputs. The malaria projections were based on five different global climate models, each run under four emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs) and a single population projection. We also investigated the modeling uncertainty associated with future projections of populations at risk for malaria owing to climate change. Our findings show an overall global net increase in climate suitability and a net increase in the population at risk, but with large uncertainties. The model outputs indicate a net increase in the annual person-months at risk when comparing from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5 from the 2050s to the 2080s. The malaria outcome metrics were highly sensitive to the choice of malaria impact model, especially over the epidemic fringes of the malaria distribution.
650 7a MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAPx Hälsovetenskapx Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi0 (SwePub)303022 hsv//swe
650 7a MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCESx Health Sciencesx Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology0 (SwePub)303022 hsv//eng
7001 a Kovats, Sari4 aut
7001 a Rocklöv, Joacimu Umeå universitet,Epidemiologi och global hälsa4 aut0 (Swepub:umu)joro0003
7001 a Tompkins, Adrian M4 aut
7001 a Morse, Andrew P4 aut
7001 a Colón-González, Felipe J4 aut
7001 a Stenlund, Hans4 aut
7001 a Martens, Pim4 aut
7001 a Lloyd, Simon J4 aut
7102 a Umeå universitetb Epidemiologi och global hälsa4 org
7730 t Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of Americad : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciencesg 111:9, s. 3286-3291q 111:9<3286-3291x 0027-8424x 1091-6490
8564 u https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/111/9/3286.full.pdf
8564 8u https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-88057
8564 8u https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1302089111

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