Sökning: WFRF:(Sherman Garrick T.) > (2023) > Insights into the a...
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000 | 17382naa a2201993 4500 | |
001 | oai:DiVA.org:uu-512888 | |
003 | SwePub | |
008 | 230929s2023 | |||||||||||000 ||eng| | |
009 | oai:prod.swepub.kib.ki.se:152036868 | |
024 | 7 | a https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-5128882 URI |
024 | 7 | a https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-022-01517-12 DOI |
024 | 7 | a http://kipublications.ki.se/Default.aspx?queryparsed=id:1520368682 URI |
040 | a (SwePub)uud (SwePub)ki | |
041 | a engb eng | |
042 | 9 SwePub | |
072 | 7 | a ref2 swepub-contenttype |
072 | 7 | a art2 swepub-publicationtype |
100 | 1 | a Grossmann, Igoru Department of Psychology, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada.4 aut |
245 | 1 0 | a Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change |
264 | c 2023-02-09 | |
264 | 1 | b Springer Nature,c 2023 |
338 | a print2 rdacarrier | |
520 | a How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. How accurate are social scientists in predicting societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? Grossmann et al. report the findings of two forecasting tournaments. Social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models. | |
650 | 7 | a NATURVETENSKAPx Matematikx Sannolikhetsteori och statistik0 (SwePub)101062 hsv//swe |
650 | 7 | a NATURAL SCIENCESx Mathematicsx Probability Theory and Statistics0 (SwePub)101062 hsv//eng |
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700 | 1 | a Sharpinskyi, Konstantynu Univ Waterloo, Dept Psychol, Waterloo, ON, Canada.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Varnum, Michael E. W.u Arizona State Univ, Dept Psychol, Tempe, AZ USA.4 aut |
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700 | 1 | a Guo, Xinqi Evieu Univ Calif San Diego, Dept Expt Psychol, San Diego, CA USA.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Kara-Yakoubian, Mane R.u Toronto Metropolitan Univ, Dept Psychol, Toronto, ON, Canada.4 aut |
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700 | 1 | a Raes, Louisu Tilburg Univ, Dept Econ, Tilburg, Netherlands.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Tay, Louisu Purdue Univ, Dept Psychol Sci, W Lafayette, IN USA.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Vie, Aymericu Univ Oxford, Math Inst, Oxford, England.;Univ Oxford, Inst New Econ Thinking, Oxford, England.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Wagner, Lisau Univ Zurich, Jacobs Ctr Prod Youth Dev, Zurich, Switzerland.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Adamkovic, Matusu Univ Presov, Inst Psychol, Presov, Slovakia.;Slovak Acad Sci, Inst Social Sci, CSPS, Bratislava, Slovakia.;Univ Oxford, Museum Ethnog, Oxford, England.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Arami, Arashu Univ Waterloo, Dept Mech & Mechatron Engn, Waterloo, ON, Canada.;Univ Hlth Network, Toronto Rehabil Inst KITE, Toronto, ON, Canada.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Arriaga, Patriciau Iscte Univ, CIS, Inst Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Bandara, Kasunu Univ Melbourne, Melbourne Ctr Data Sci, Melbourne, Vic, Australia.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Banik, Gabrielu Univ Presov, Inst Psychol, Presov, Slovakia.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Bartos, Frantiseku Univ Amsterdam, Fac Social & Behav Sci, Amsterdam, Netherlands.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Baskin, Ernestu St Josephs Univ, Haub Sch Business, Dept Food Mkt, Philadelphia, PA USA.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Bergmeir, Christophu Monash Univ, Dept Data Sci & Artificial Intelligence, Melbourne, Vic, Australia.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Bialek, Michal K.u Univ Wroclaw, Inst Psychol, Wroclaw, Poland.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Borsting, Caroline T.u Aarhus Univ, Dept Management, Aarhus, Denmark.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Browne, Dillon M.u Univ Waterloo, Dept Psychol, Waterloo, ON, Canada.4 aut |
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700 | 1 | a Chie, Bin-Tzong J.u Tamkang Univ, Dept Ind Econ, New Taipei City, Taiwan.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Chopik, William N.u Michigan State Univ, Dept Psychol, E Lansing, MI USA.4 aut |
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700 | 1 | a Elbaek, Christianu Aarhus Univ, Dept Management, Aarhus, Denmark.4 aut |
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700 | 1 | a Goyal, Juliau Univ Waterloo, Sch Publ Hlth Sci, Waterloo, ON, Canada.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Graf-Vlachy, Lorenz D.u TU Dortmund Univ, Dortmund, Germany.;ESCP Business Sch, Paris, France.4 aut |
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700 | 1 | a Lin, Hung-Wenu Natl Pingtung Univ, Dept Business Adm, Pingtung, Taiwan.4 aut |
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700 | 1 | a Marsh, Abigailu Georgetown Univ, Dept Psychol, Washington, DC USA.4 aut |
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700 | 1 | a Seifert, Matthiasu IE Univ, IE Business Sch, Madrid, Spain.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Sevincer, A. T.u Univ Hamburg, Fac Psychol & Human Movement Sci, Hamburg, Germany.4 aut |
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710 | 2 | a Department of Psychology, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada.b Univ Waterloo, Dept Psychol, Waterloo, ON, Canada.;Northumbria Univ, Dept Psychol, Northumbria, England.4 org |
773 | 0 | t Nature Human Behaviourd : Springer Natureg 7, s. 484-501q 7<484-501x 2397-3374 |
856 | 4 8 | u https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-512888 |
856 | 4 8 | u https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-022-01517-1 |
856 | 4 8 | u http://kipublications.ki.se/Default.aspx?queryparsed=id:152036868 |
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