Prediction of 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk among community residents in Shanghai, China - a comparative analysis of risk algorithms

• Background and aims: The accuracy of various 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk models has been debatable. We compared two risk algorithms and explored clustering patterns across different risk stratifications among community residents in Shanghai. Methods and results: A total of 28,201 residents (aged 40-74 years old) who were free of ASCVD were selected from the Shanghai Survey in China. The 10-year ASCVD risk was estimated by applying the 2013 Pooled Cohort Equations (PCEs) and Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China (China-PAR). The agreement was assessed between PCEs and China-PAR using Cohen's kappa statistics. The mean absolute 10-year ASCVD risk calculated by PCEs and China-PAR was about 10.0% and 6.0%, respectively. PCEs estimated that 44.9% of participants [with a 95% confidence interval (CI):44.0%-45.8%] were at high risk, while China-PAR estimated only 16.7% (95%CI:15.8%-18.0%) were at high risk. In both models, the percentage of high ASCVD risk was higher for participants who were older, men, less educated, current smokers, drinkers and manual workers. Among high-risk individuals, almost all participants (PCEs:90.5%; China-PAR:98.6%) had at least one risk factor; hypertension being the most prevalent. The concordance between PCEs and China-PAR was moderate (kappa:0.428, 95%CI: 0.420-0.434) with a better agreement for women (kappa:0.503,95%CI: 0.493-0.513) than for men (kappa:0.211,95%CI: 0.201-0.221). Conclusion: The proportion of participants with a 10-year ASCVD high risk predicted by China PAR was lower than the results of the PCEs. The risk stratifications of the two algorithms were inconsistent in terms of demographic and life-behaviour characteristics. (C) 2021 The Italian Diabetes Society, the Italian Society for the Study of Atherosclerosis, the Italian Society of Human Nutrition and the Department of Clinical Medicine and Surgery, Federico II University. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ämnesord

MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP  -- Klinisk medicin -- Kardiologi (hsv//swe)

MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES  -- Clinical Medicine -- Cardiac and Cardiovascular Systems (hsv//eng)

MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP  -- Hälsovetenskap -- Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi (hsv//swe)

MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES  -- Health Sciences -- Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology (hsv//eng)

Nyckelord

Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease

Risk assessment

Risk factors

Pooled cohort equations

Prediction for ASCVD risk in China

pooled cohort equations

sex-differences

primary-care

prevalence

adults

hypertension

validation

mortality

score

Cardiovascular System & Cardiology

Endocrinology & Metabolism

Nutrition & Dietetics

Publikations- och innehållstyp

ref (ämneskategori)

art (ämneskategori)