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Model ensembles of ecosystem services fill global certainty and capacity gaps

Willcock, Simon (author)
Bangor University,Rothamsted Research
Hooftman, Danny A.P. (author)
Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford
Neugarten, Rachel A. (author)
Cornell University,Cornell Lab of Ornithology,Conservation International
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Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca (author)
University of Minnesota,Stanford University
Barredo, José I. (author)
European Commission Joint Research Centre, Brussels
Hickler, Thomas (author)
Goethe University,Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre
Kindermann, Georg (author)
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Lewis, Amy R. (author)
Bangor University
Lindeskog, Mats (author)
Lund University,Lunds universitet,BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate,Centrum för miljö- och klimatvetenskap (CEC),Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap,Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC),Faculty of Science,Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science
Martínez-López, Javier (author)
University of Granada
Bullock, James M. (author)
Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford
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 (creator_code:org_t)
2023
2023
English.
In: Science Advances. - 2375-2548. ; 9:14
Related links:
http://dx.doi.org/10... (free)
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https://lup.lub.lu.s...
https://doi.org/10.1...
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  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)
Abstract Subject headings
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  • Sustaining ecosystem services (ES) critical to human well-being is hindered by many practitioners lacking access to ES models (“the capacity gap”) or knowledge of the accuracy of available models (“the certainty gap”), especially in the world’s poorer regions. We developed ensembles of multiple models at an unprecedented global scale for five ES of high policy relevance. Ensembles were 2 to 14% more accurate than individual models. Ensemble accuracy was not correlated with proxies for research capacity, indicating that accuracy is distributed equitably across the globe and that countries less able to research ES suffer no accuracy penalty. By making these ES ensembles and associated accuracy estimates freely available, we provide globally consistent ES information that can support policy and decision-making in regions with low data availability or low capacity for implementing complex ES models. Thus, we hope to reduce the capacity and certainty gaps impeding local-to global-scale movement toward ES sustainability.

Subject headings

NATURVETENSKAP  -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap (hsv//swe)
NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences (hsv//eng)

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