Tailored climate indices for climate-proofing operational forestry applications in Sweden and Finland

Bärring, Lars (author): Lund University,Lunds universitet,Centrum för miljö- och klimatvetenskap (CEC),Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC),Faculty of Science,Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute

Andersson Gull, Bengt (author): Forestry Research Institute of Sweden (SkogForsk)

(creator_code:org_t)

2016-03-23
2017
English.
In: International Journal of Climatology. - : Wiley. - 0899-8418. ; 37:1, s. 123-142

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Abstract Subject headings

ABSTRACT: In the light of the observed and projected regional warming trend in northern Europe, new recommendations are needed for climate-proofing the selection of forest trees seedlings and growth estimates. Drawing on recently developed climate data sets, both observations of the recent past, and scenarios for the future we present and analyse a set of climate indices tailored to be used for operational forestry applications. Data covering Sweden and Finland include two high-resolution gridded observational data sets of daily mean temperature and daily total precipitation for the period 1961-2007, and an ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) projections based on forcing data from six global scenarios representing a medium high emission scenario. The observation-based data sets are used as reference in two ways; as reference for downscaling and bias-adjustment of daily data from the regional scenarios and to highlight recent observed climate changes and how these changes are represented in the RCM ensemble. For seasonal temperature and related climate indices, there is a clear change towards warmer conditions between the two periods 1961-1990 and 1988-2007, most clearly seen in the observational data and less pronounced in the RCM ensemble. For the future period 2035-2065, 'mid-century', the medium high scenario ensemble used in this study shows substantial changes to several key indices relevant to forestry applications.

NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Klimatforskning (hsv//swe)
NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Climate Research (hsv//eng)
LANTBRUKSVETENSKAPER -- Lantbruksvetenskap, skogsbruk och fiske -- Skogsvetenskap (hsv//swe)
AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES -- Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries -- Forest Science (hsv//eng)

About the subject

NATURAL SCIENCES: NATURAL SCIENCES; and Earth and Relate ...; and Climate Research

AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES: AGRICULTURAL SCI ...; and Agriculture Fore ...; and Forest Science

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