Uncertainties and recommendations

Callaghan, Terry V. (author)

Björn, Lars Olof (author): Lund University,Lunds universitet,Molekylär cellbiologi,Biologiska institutionen,Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,Molecular Cell Biology,Department of Biology,Faculty of Science

Chernov, Yuri (author)

Chapin, Terry (author)

Christensen, Torben (author): Lund University,Lunds universitet,Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap,Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science,Faculty of Science

Huntley, Brian (author)

Ims, Rolf A. (author)

Johansson, Margareta (author): Lund University,Lunds universitet,Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap,Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science,Faculty of Science

Jolly, Dyanna (author)

Jonasson, Sven (author)

Matveyeva, Nadya (author)

Panikov, Nicolai (author)

Oechel, Walter (author)

Shaver, Gus (author)

(creator_code:org_t)

Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, 2004
2004
English.
In: Ambio: a Journal of Human Environment. - : Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. - 0044-7447. ; 33:7, s. 474-479

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Abstract Subject headings

An assessment of the impacts of changes in climate and UV-B radiation on Arctic terrestrial ecosystems, made within the Arctic Climate Impacts Assessment (ACIA), highlighted the profound implications of projected warming in particular for future ecosystem services, biodiversity and feedbacks to climate. However, although our current understanding of ecological processes and changes driven by climate and UV-B is strong in some geographical areas and in some disciplines, it is weak in others. Even though recently the strength of our predictions has increased dramatically with increased research effort in the Arctic and the introduction of new technologies, our current understanding is still constrained by various uncertainties. The assessment is based on a range of approaches that each have uncertainties, and on data sets that are often far from complete. Uncertainties arise from methodologies and conceptual frameworks, from unpredictable surprises, from lack of validation of models, and from the use of particular scenarios, rather than predictions, of future greenhouse gas emissions and climates. Recommendations to reduce the uncertainties are wide-ranging and relate to all disciplines within the assessment. However, a repeated theme is the critical importance of achieving an adequate spatial and long-term coverage of experiments, observations and monitoring of environmental changes and their impacts throughout the sparsely populated and remote region that is the Arctic.

By the author/editor: Callaghan, Terry ...; Björn, Lars Olof; Chernov, Yuri; Chapin, Terry; Christensen, Tor ...; Huntley, Brian; show more...; Ims, Rolf A.; Johansson, Marga ...; Jolly, Dyanna; Jonasson, Sven; Matveyeva, Nadya; Panikov, Nicolai; Oechel, Walter; Shaver, Gus; show less...

About the subject

NATURAL SCIENCES: NATURAL SCIENCES; and Earth and Relate ...; and Physical Geograp ...

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