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Response surfaces f...
Response surfaces for climate change impact assessments in urban areas
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- Semadeni Davies, Annette (author)
- Lund University,Lunds universitet,Avdelningen för Teknisk vattenresurslära,Institutionen för bygg- och miljöteknologi,Institutioner vid LTH,Lunds Tekniska Högskola,Division of Water Resources Engineering,Department of Building and Environmental Technology,Departments at LTH,Faculty of Engineering, LTH
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(creator_code:org_t)
- 2003
- 2003
- English.
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In: Water Science and Technology. - 0273-1223. ; 48:9, s. 165-175
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Abstract
Subject headings
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- Assessment of the impacts of climate change in real-world water systems, such as urban drainage networks, is a research priority for IPCC (intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change). The usual approach is to force a hydrological transformation model with a changed climate scenario. To tackle uncertainty, the model should be run with at least high, middle and low change scenarios. This paper shows the value of response surfaces for displaying multiple simulated responses to incremental changes in air temperature and precipitation. The example given is inflow, related to sewer infiltration, at the Lycksele waste water treatment plant. The range of plausible changes in inflow is displayed for a series of runs for eight GCMs (Global Circulation Model; ACACIA; Carter, 2002, pers. comm.). These runs are summarised by climate envelopes, one for each prediction time-slice (2020, 2050, 2080). Together, the climate envelopes and response surfaces allow uncertainty to be easily seen. Winter inflows are currently sensitive to temperature, but if average temperature rises to above zero, inflow will be most sensitive to precipitation. Spring inflows are sensitive to changes in winter snow accumulation and melt. Inflow responses are highly dependent on the greenhouse gas emission scenario and GCM chosen.
Subject headings
- TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER -- Samhällsbyggnadsteknik -- Vattenteknik (hsv//swe)
- ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY -- Civil Engineering -- Water Engineering (hsv//eng)
Keyword
- sensitivity
- mitigation
- impacts
- adaptation
- climate scenarios
- uncertainty
- analysis
- socio-economic scenarios
Publication and Content Type
- art (subject category)
- ref (subject category)
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