A genetically informed prediction model for suicidal and aggressive behaviour in teens

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A genetically informed prediction model for suicidal and aggressive behaviour in teens

Tate, A. E. (author): Karolinska Institutet

Akingbuwa, W. A. (author): Department of Biological Psychology, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands; Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Amsterdam University Medical Centres, Amsterdam, the Netherlands,Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Dept Biol Psychol, Amsterdam, Netherlands.;Amsterdam Univ Med Ctr, Amsterdam Publ Hlth Res Inst, Amsterdam, Netherlands.

Karlsson, R. (author): Karolinska Institutet

Hottenga, J. J. (author): Department of Biological Psychology, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands,Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Dept Biol Psychol, Amsterdam, Netherlands.

Pool, R. (author): Department of Biological Psychology, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands; Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Amsterdam University Medical Centres, Amsterdam, the Netherlands,Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Dept Biol Psychol, Amsterdam, Netherlands.;Amsterdam Univ Med Ctr, Amsterdam Publ Hlth Res Inst, Amsterdam, Netherlands.

Boman, Magnus (author): Karolinska Institutet,KTH,Programvaruteknik och datorsystem, SCS,Karolinska Inst, Dept Learning Informat Management & Eth, Solna, Sweden.

Larsson, Henrik, 1975- (author): Örebro universitet,Institutionen för medicinska vetenskaper,Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Solna, Sweden,Karolinska Inst, Dept Med Epidemiol & Biostat, Solna, Sweden.;Örebro Univ, Sch Med Sci, Örebro, Sweden.

Lundström, Sebastian (author): Gothenburg University,Göteborgs universitet,Gillbergcentrum,Centrum för etik, juridik och mental hälsa,Gillberg Neuropsychiatry Centre,Centre for Ethics, Law, and Mental Health,Centre for Ethics, Law and Mental Health (CELAM), University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden; Gillberg Neuropsychiatry Centre, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden,Univ Gothenburg, Ctr Eth Law & Mental Hlth CELAM, Gothenburg, Sweden.;Univ Gothenburg, Gillberg Neuropsychiat Ctr, Gothenburg, Sweden.

Lichtenstein, P. (author): Karolinska Institutet

Middeldorp, C. M. (author): Department of Biological Psychology, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands; Child Health Research Centre, the University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia; Child and Youth Mental Health Service, Children’s Health Queensland Hospital and Health Services, Brisbane, QLD, Australia,Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Dept Biol Psychol, Amsterdam, Netherlands.;Univ Queensland, Child Hlth Res Ctr, Brisbane, Qld, Australia.;Childrens Hlth Queensland Hosp & Hlth Serv, Child & Youth Mental Hlth Serv, Brisbane, Qld, Australia.

Bartels, M. (author): Department of Biological Psychology, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands,Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Dept Biol Psychol, Amsterdam, Netherlands.

Kuja-Halkola, R. (author): Karolinska Institutet

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2022-11-21
2022
English.
In: Translational Psychiatry. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2158-3188. ; 12:1

Related links:: https://doi.org/10.1...; show more...; https://gup.ub.gu.se...; https://doi.org/10.1...; https://urn.kb.se/re...; https://urn.kb.se/re...; http://kipublication...; show less...

Journal article (peer-reviewed)

Abstract Subject headings

Suicidal and aggressive behaviours cause significant personal and societal burden. As risk factors associated with these behaviours frequently overlap, combined approaches in predicting the behaviours may be useful in identifying those at risk for either. The current study aimed to create a model that predicted if individuals will exhibit suicidal behaviour, aggressive behaviour, both, or neither in late adolescence. A sample of 5,974 twins from the Child and Adolescent Twin Study in Sweden (CATSS) was broken down into a training (80%), tune (10%) and test (10%) set. The Netherlands Twin Register (NTR; N = 2702) was used for external validation. Our longitudinal data featured genetic, environmental, and psychosocial predictors derived from parental and self-report data. A stacked ensemble model was created which contained a gradient boosted machine, random forest, elastic net, and neural network. Model performance was transferable between CATSS and NTR (macro area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) [95% CI] AUC(CATSS(test set)) = 0.709 (0.671-0.747); AUC(NTR) = 0.685 (0.656-0.715), suggesting model generalisability across Northern Europe. The notable exception is suicidal behaviours in the NTR, which was no better than chance. The 25 highest scoring variable importance scores for the gradient boosted machines and random forest models included self-reported psychiatric symptoms in mid-adolescence, sex, and polygenic scores for psychiatric traits. The model's performance is comparable to current prediction models that use clinical interviews and is not yet suitable for clinical use. Moreover, genetic variables may have a role to play in predictive models of adolescent psychopathology.

Subject headings

MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP -- Klinisk medicin -- Psykiatri (hsv//swe)
MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES -- Clinical Medicine -- Psychiatry (hsv//eng)

Keyword

borderline personality-disorder
life-course-persistent
self-harm
psychiatric-hospitals
risk-assessment
violent crime
questionnaire
adolescence
instruments
prevalence
Psychiatry

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ref (subject category)
art (subject category)

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By the author/editor: Tate, A. E.; Akingbuwa, W. A.; Karlsson, R.; Hottenga, J. J.; Pool, R.; Boman, Magnus; show more...; Larsson, Henrik, ...; Lundström, Sebas ...; Lichtenstein, P.; Middeldorp, C. M ...; Bartels, M.; Kuja-Halkola, R.; show less...

About the subject

MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES: MEDICAL AND HEAL ...; and Clinical Medicin ...; and Psychiatry

Articles in the publication: Translational Ps ...

By the university: University of Gothenburg; Örebro University; Royal Institute of Technology; Karolinska Institutet

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