Valuation of product-mix flexibility using real options

• Flexibility in manufacturing operations is becoming increasingly more important to industrial firms, due to e.g., increasing market demand volatility, internationalisation of markets and competition, and shorter product life cycles. Defining, measuring and evaluating manufacturing flexibility have not been straightforward - neither in theory nor in practice. The use of real options has shown to be an accessible approach for the valuation of certain types of flexibility. When using real options for capital budgeting purposes it is possible to take flexibility options into account in the valuation process. In this paper, we use real options to evaluate one specific type of manufacturing flexibility, i.e., product-mix flexibility. We provide both theoretical and practical perspectives, based on a real case. The main interest of the company under study is to evaluate product-mix flexibility with respect to capacity, set-ups, level of automation and multi-functionality of resources. The case involves multiple products and demand uncertainty, wherefore product demands are used as the underlying asset in the real options models. Thus, the contribution of this paper concerns the combination of real case, multiple products, capacity constraints, and set-up costs. The results of the analysis show that (i) the value of flexibility decreases when demand volatility increases, (ii) flexible resources add substantial value as compared to dedicated resources, and (iii) the flexibility value of marginal capacity decreases with increasing levels of capacity.

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TECHNOLOGY

TEKNIKVETENSKAP

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