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Projections of temp...
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Gasparrini, AntonioLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
(författare)
Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios
- Artikel/kapitelEngelska2017
Förlag, utgivningsår, omfång ...
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2017
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electronicrdacarrier
Nummerbeteckningar
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LIBRIS-ID:oai:DiVA.org:umu-143434
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https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-143434URI
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https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(17)30156-0DOI
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https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/8cf131fc-9531-4acc-80cc-dc6bb9cc268bURI
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Språk:engelska
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Sammanfattning på:engelska
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Klassifikation
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Ämneskategori:ref swepub-contenttype
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Ämneskategori:art swepub-publicationtype
Anmärkningar
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Background: Climate change can directly affect human health by varying exposure to non-optimal outdoor temperature. However, evidence on this direct impact at a global scale is limited, mainly due to issues in modelling and projecting complex and highly heterogeneous epidemiological relationships across different populations and climates.Methods: We collected observed daily time series of mean temperature and mortality counts for all causes or non-external causes only, in periods ranging from Jan 1, 1984, to Dec 31, 2015, from various locations across the globe through the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We estimated temperature-mortality relationships through a two-stage time series design. We generated current and future daily mean temperature series under four scenarios of climate change, determined by varying trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions, using five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality for cold and heat and their net change in 1990-2099 under each scenario of climate change, assuming no adaptation or population changes.Findings: Our dataset comprised 451 locations in 23 countries across nine regions of the world, including 85 879 895 deaths. Results indicate, on average, a net increase in temperature-related excess mortality under high-emission scenarios, although with important geographical differences. In temperate areas such as northern Europe, east Asia, and Australia, the less intense warming and large decrease in cold-related excess would induce a null or marginally negative net effect, with the net change in 2090-99 compared with 2010-19 ranging from -1·2% (empirical 95% CI -3·6 to 1·4) in Australia to -0·1% (-2·1 to 1·6) in east Asia under the highest emission scenario, although the decreasing trends would reverse during the course of the century. Conversely, warmer regions, such as the central and southern parts of America or Europe, and especially southeast Asia, would experience a sharp surge in heat-related impacts and extremely large net increases, with the net change at the end of the century ranging from 3·0% (-3·0 to 9·3) in Central America to 12·7% (-4·7 to 28·1) in southeast Asia under the highest emission scenario. Most of the health effects directly due to temperature increase could be avoided under scenarios involving mitigation strategies to limit emissions and further warming of the planet.Interpretation: This study shows the negative health impacts of climate change that, under high-emission scenarios, would disproportionately affect warmer and poorer regions of the world. Comparison with lower emission scenarios emphasises the importance of mitigation policies for limiting global warming and reducing the associated health risks.
Ämnesord och genrebeteckningar
Biuppslag (personer, institutioner, konferenser, titlar ...)
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Guo, YumingMonash University,University of Queensland
(författare)
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Sera, FrancescoLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
(författare)
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Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana MariaLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
(författare)
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Huber, VeronikaPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
(författare)
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Tong, ShiluShanghai Jiao Tong University,Queensland University of Technology
(författare)
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de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, MichelineUniversity of São Paulo
(författare)
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Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo HilarioUniversity of São Paulo
(författare)
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Lavigne, EricUniversity of Ottawa
(författare)
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Matus Correa, PatriciaUniversidad de los Andes, Chile
(författare)
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Valdes Ortega, NicolasUniversidad de los Andes, Chile
(författare)
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Kan, HaidongFudan University
(författare)
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Osorio, SamuelUniversity of São Paulo
(författare)
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Kyselý, JanCzech University of Life Sciences Prague,University of Oulu,Oulu University Hospital
(författare)
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Urban, Aleš
(författare)
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Jaakkola, Jouni J. K.
(författare)
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Ryti, Niilo R. I.Oulu University Hospital,University of Oulu
(författare)
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Pascal, MathildeFrench National Public Health Agency
(författare)
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Goodman, Patrick G.Dublin Institute of Technology
(författare)
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Zeka, ArianaBrunel University London
(författare)
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Michelozzi, Paola
(författare)
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Scortichini, Matteo
(författare)
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Hashizume, MasahiroNagasaki University
(författare)
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Honda, YasushiUniversity of Tsukuba
(författare)
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Hurtado-Diaz, MagaliNational Institute of Public Health, Mexico
(författare)
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Cesar Cruz, JulioNational Institute of Public Health, Mexico
(författare)
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Seposo, XerxesKyoto University
(författare)
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Kim, HoSeoul National University
(författare)
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Tobias, AurelioCSIC Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDAEA)
(författare)
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Iñiguez, CarmenUniversity of Valencia
(författare)
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Forsberg, BertilUmeå University,Umeå universitet,Yrkes- och miljömedicin(Swepub:umu)befo0001
(författare)
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Oudin Åström, DanielUmeå University,Lund University,Lunds universitet,Umeå universitet,Yrkes- och miljömedicin,Allmänmedicin, kardiovaskulär epidemiologi och levnadsvanor,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,Family Medicine, Cardiovascular Epidemiology and Lifestyle,Lund University Research Groups(Swepub:lu)edz-dio
(författare)
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Ragettli, Martina S.University of Basel,Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH)
(författare)
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Guo, Yue LeonNational Taiwan University
(författare)
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Wu, Chang-FuNational Taiwan University
(författare)
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Zanobetti, AntonellaHarvard University
(författare)
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Schwartz, JoelHarvard University
(författare)
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Bell, Michelle L.Yale University
(författare)
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Dang, Tran NgocDuy Tan University,Ho Chi Minh City Medicine and Pharmacy University
(författare)
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Van, Dung DoHo Chi Minh City Medicine and Pharmacy University
(författare)
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Heaviside, ClarePublic Health England,London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
(författare)
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Vardoulakis, SotirisLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine,Institute of Occupational Medicine (IOM), Edinburgh
(författare)
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Hajat, ShakoorLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
(författare)
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Haines, AndyLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
(författare)
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Armstrong, BenLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
(författare)
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London School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineMonash University
(creator_code:org_t)
Sammanhörande titlar
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Ingår i:The Lancet Planetary Health1:9, s. e360-e3672542-5196
Internetlänk
Hitta via bibliotek
Till lärosätets databas
- Av författaren/redakt...
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Gasparrini, Anto ...
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Guo, Yuming
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Sera, Francesco
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Vicedo-Cabrera, ...
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Huber, Veronika
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Tong, Shilu
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visa fler...
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de Sousa Zanotti ...
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Nascimento Saldi ...
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Lavigne, Eric
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Matus Correa, Pa ...
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Valdes Ortega, N ...
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Kan, Haidong
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Osorio, Samuel
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Kyselý, Jan
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Urban, Aleš
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Jaakkola, Jouni ...
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Ryti, Niilo R. I ...
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Pascal, Mathilde
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Goodman, Patrick ...
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Zeka, Ariana
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Michelozzi, Paol ...
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Scortichini, Mat ...
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Hashizume, Masah ...
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Honda, Yasushi
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Hurtado-Diaz, Ma ...
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Cesar Cruz, Juli ...
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Seposo, Xerxes
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Kim, Ho
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Tobias, Aurelio
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Iñiguez, Carmen
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Forsberg, Bertil
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Oudin Åström, Da ...
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Ragettli, Martin ...
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Guo, Yue Leon
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Wu, Chang-Fu
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Zanobetti, Anton ...
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Schwartz, Joel
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Bell, Michelle L ...
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Dang, Tran Ngoc
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Van, Dung Do
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Heaviside, Clare
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Vardoulakis, Sot ...
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Hajat, Shakoor
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Haines, Andy
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Armstrong, Ben
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