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Climate change and ecological intensification of agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa : A systems approach to predict maize yield under push-pull technology
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- Alexandridis, Nikolaos (författare)
- Lund University,Lunds universitet,BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate,Centrum för miljö- och klimatvetenskap (CEC),Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system,Biodiversitet och bevarandevetenskap,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC),Faculty of Science,Biodiversity and Conservation Science,Lund University Research Groups
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- Feit, Benjamin (författare)
- Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet,Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences,Institutionen för ekologi,Department of Ecology
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- Kihara, Job (författare)
- International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT)
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- Luttermoser, Tim (författare)
- Cornell University
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- May, Wilhelm (författare)
- Lund University,Lunds universitet,BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate,Centrum för miljö- och klimatvetenskap (CEC),Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system,Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC),Faculty of Science
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- Midega, Charles (författare)
- North-West University,Poverty and Health Integrated Solutions (PHIS)
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- Öborn, Ingrid (författare)
- Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet,Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences,Institutionen för växtproduktionsekologi,Department of Crop Production Ecology
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- Poveda, Katja (författare)
- Cornell University
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- Sileshi, Gudeta W. (författare)
- Addis Ababa University,University of KwaZulu-Natal
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- Zewdie, Beyene (författare)
- Stockholm University
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- Clough, Yann (författare)
- Lund University,Lunds universitet,BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate,Centrum för miljö- och klimatvetenskap (CEC),Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,Biodiversitet och bevarandevetenskap,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,LU profilområde: Naturbaserade framtidslösningar,Lunds universitets profilområden,Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC),Faculty of Science,Biodiversity and Conservation Science,Lund University Research Groups,LU Profile Area: Nature-based future solutions,Lund University Profile areas
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- Jonsson, Mattias (författare)
- Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet,Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences,Institutionen för ekologi,Department of Ecology
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(creator_code:org_t)
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- 2023
- 2023
- Engelska.
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Ingår i: Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment. - 0167-8809 .- 1873-2305. ; 352
- Relaterad länk:
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http://dx.doi.org/10... (free)
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https://pub.epsilon.... (primary) (Raw object) (free)
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https://lup.lub.lu.s...
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https://doi.org/10.1...
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https://res.slu.se/i...
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Abstract
Ämnesord
Stäng
- Assessing effects of climate change on agricultural systems and the potential for ecological intensification to increase food security in developing countries is essential to guide management, policy-making and future research. ‘Push-pull’ technology (PPT) is a poly-cropping design developed in eastern Africa that utilizes plant chemicals to mediate plant–insect interactions. PPT application yields significant increases in crop productivity, by reducing pest load and damage caused by arthropods and parasitic weeds, while also bolstering soil fertility. As climate change effects may be species- and/or context-specific, there is need to elucidate how, in interaction with biotic factors, projected climate conditions are likely to influence future functioning of PPT. Here, we first reviewed how changes in temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentration can influence PPT components (i.e., land use, soils, crops, weeds, diseases, pests and their natural enemies) across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We then imposed these anticipated responses on a landscape-scale qualitative mathematical model of maize production under PPT in eastern Africa, to predict cumulative, structure-mediated impacts of climate change on maize yield. Our review suggests variable impacts of climate change on PPT components in SSA by the end of the 21st century, including reduced soil fertility, increased weed and arthropod pest pressure and increased prevalence of crop diseases, but also increased biological control by pests’ natural enemies. Extrapolating empirical evidence of climate effects to predict responses to projected climate conditions is mainly limited by a lack of mechanistic understanding regarding single and interactive effects of climate variables on PPT components. Model predictions of maize yield responses to anticipated impacts of climate change in eastern Africa suggest predominantly negative future trends. Nevertheless, maize yields can be sustained or increased by favourable changes in system components with less certain future behaviour, including higher PPT adoption, preservation of field edge density and agricultural diversification beyond cereal crops.
Ämnesord
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Klimatforskning (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Climate Research (hsv//eng)
- LANTBRUKSVETENSKAPER -- Annan lantbruksvetenskap (hsv//swe)
- AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES -- Other Agricultural Sciences (hsv//eng)
- LANTBRUKSVETENSKAPER -- Annan lantbruksvetenskap -- Miljö- och naturvårdsvetenskap (hsv//swe)
- AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES -- Other Agricultural Sciences -- Environmental Sciences related to Agriculture and Land-use (hsv//eng)
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Biologi -- Ekologi (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Biological Sciences -- Ecology (hsv//eng)
Nyckelord
- Agroecology
- Climate change
- Natural pest control
- Push-pull
- Qualitative model
- Sub-Saharan Africa
Publikations- och innehållstyp
- art (ämneskategori)
- ref (ämneskategori)
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Till lärosätets databas
- Av författaren/redakt...
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Alexandridis, Ni ...
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Feit, Benjamin
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Kihara, Job
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Luttermoser, Tim
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May, Wilhelm
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Midega, Charles
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visa fler...
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Öborn, Ingrid
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Poveda, Katja
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Sileshi, Gudeta ...
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Zewdie, Beyene
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Clough, Yann
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Jonsson, Mattias
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visa färre...
- Om ämnet
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- NATURVETENSKAP
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NATURVETENSKAP
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och Geovetenskap och ...
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och Klimatforskning
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- LANTBRUKSVETENSKAPER
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LANTBRUKSVETENSK ...
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och Annan lantbruksv ...
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- LANTBRUKSVETENSKAPER
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LANTBRUKSVETENSK ...
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och Annan lantbruksv ...
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och Miljö och naturv ...
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- NATURVETENSKAP
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NATURVETENSKAP
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och Biologi
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och Ekologi
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Agriculture, Eco ...
- Av lärosätet
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Lunds universitet
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Sveriges Lantbruksuniversitet