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Improved ability of biological and previous caries multimarkers to predict caries disease as revealed by multivariate PLS modelling

Nordlund, Åke (author)
Umeå universitet,Kariologi,Dept of Odontology/Cariology, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
Johansson, Ingegerd (author)
Umeå universitet,Kariologi
Källestål, Carina (author)
Umeå universitet,Uppsala universitet,Institutionen för kvinnors och barns hälsa,Internationell barnhälsa och nutrition/Persson,Kariologi,Department of Women's and Children's Health/International Maternal and Child Health, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
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Ericson, Thorild (author)
Umeå universitet,Kariologi
Sjöström, Michael (author)
Karolinska Institutet,Umeå universitet,Kemiska institutionen
Strömberg, Nicklas (author)
Umeå universitet,Kariologi
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 (creator_code:org_t)
2009-11-03
2009
English.
In: BMC Oral Health. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1472-6831. ; 9, s. 28-
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)
Abstract Subject headings
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  • BACKGROUND: Dental caries is a chronic disease with plaque bacteria, diet and saliva modifying disease activity. Here we have used the PLS method to evaluate a multiplicity of such biological variables (n = 88) for ability to predict caries in a cross-sectional (baseline caries) and prospective (2-year caries development) setting. METHODS: Multivariate PLS modelling was used to associate the many biological variables with caries recorded in thirty 14-year-old children by measuring the numbers of incipient and manifest caries lesions at all surfaces. RESULTS: A wide but shallow gliding scale of one fifth caries promoting or protecting, and four fifths non-influential, variables occurred. The influential markers behaved in the order of plaque bacteria > diet > saliva, with previously known plaque bacteria/diet markers and a set of new protective diet markers. A differential variable patterning appeared for new versus progressing lesions. The influential biological multimarkers (n = 18) predicted baseline caries better (ROC area 0.96) than five markers (0.92) and a single lactobacilli marker (0.7) with sensitivity/specificity of 1.87, 1.78 and 1.13 at 1/3 of the subjects diagnosed sick, respectively. Moreover, biological multimarkers (n = 18) explained 2-year caries increment slightly better than reported before but predicted it poorly (ROC area 0.76). By contrast, multimarkers based on previous caries predicted alone (ROC area 0.88), or together with biological multimarkers (0.94), increment well with a sensitivity/specificity of 1.74 at 1/3 of the subjects diagnosed sick. CONCLUSION: Multimarkers behave better than single-to-five markers but future multimarker strategies will require systematic searches for improved saliva and plaque bacteria markers.

Subject headings

MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP  -- Klinisk medicin -- Odontologi (hsv//swe)
MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES  -- Clinical Medicine -- Dentistry (hsv//eng)

Keyword

MEDICINE
MEDICIN

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