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Exploring the future of fishery conflict through narrative scenarios
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- Spijkers, Jessica (author)
- Stockholms universitet,Stockholm Resilience Centre,James Cook University, Australia
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- Merrie, Andrew (author)
- Stockholms universitet,Stockholm Resilience Centre
- Wabnitz, Colette C. C. (author)
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- Osborne, Matthew (author)
- Mobjörk, Malin (author)
- Selig, Elizabeth R. (author)
- Le Billon, Philippe (author)
- Hendrix, Cullen S. (author)
- Singh, Gerald G. (author)
- Keys, Patrick W. (author)
- Morrison, Tiffany H. (author)
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- (creator_code:org_t)
- Elsevier BV, 2021
- 2021
- English.
- In: One Earth. - : Elsevier BV. - 2590-3330 .- 2590-3322. ; 4:3, s. 386-396
- Journal article (peer-reviewed)
Abstract
Subject headings
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- Recent studies suggest that the pervasive impacts on global fishery resources caused by stressors such as overfishing and climate change could dramatically increase the likelihood of fishery conflict. However, existing projections do not consider wider economic, social, or political trends when assessing the likelihood of, and influences on, future conflict trajectories. In this paper, we build four future fishery conflict scenarios by considering multiple fishery conflict drivers derived from an expert workshop, a longitudinal database of international fishery conflict, secondary data on conflict driver trends, and regional expert reviews. The scenarios take place between the years 2030 and 2060 in the North-East Atlantic (scramble for the Atlantic''), the East China Sea (the remodeled empire''), the coast of West Africa (oceanic decolonization''), and the Arctic (polar renaissance''). The scenarios explore the implications of ongoing trends in conflict-prone regions of the world and function as accessible, science-based communication tools that can help foster anticipatory governance capacity in the pursuit of future ocean security.
Subject headings
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences (hsv//eng)
- LANTBRUKSVETENSKAPER -- Lantbruksvetenskap, skogsbruk och fiske (hsv//swe)
- AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES -- Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (hsv//eng)
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- ref (subject category)
- art (subject category)
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