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Sökning: WFRF:(Zeka Ariana) > (2020-2024) > Global, regional, a...

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FältnamnIndikatorerMetadata
00004515naa a2200517 4500
001oai:DiVA.org:umu-222446
003SwePub
008240318s2024 | |||||||||||000 ||eng|
0247 a https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-2224462 URI
0247 a https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(23)00277-22 DOI
040 a (SwePub)umu
041 a engb eng
042 9 SwePub
072 7a ref2 swepub-contenttype
072 7a art2 swepub-publicationtype
1001 a Gao, Yuan4 aut
2451 0a Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with cold spells during 2000-19 :b a three-stage modelling study
264 1b Elsevier,c 2024
338 a electronic2 rdacarrier
520 a Background: Exposure to cold spells is associated with mortality. However, little is known about the global mortality burden of cold spells.Methods: A three-stage meta-analytical method was used to estimate the global mortality burden associated with cold spells by means of a time series dataset of 1960 locations across 59 countries (or regions). First, we fitted the location-specific, cold spell-related mortality associations using a quasi-Poisson regression with a distributed lag non-linear model with a lag period of up to 21 days. Second, we built a multivariate meta-regression model between location-specific associations and seven predictors. Finally, we predicted the global grid-specific cold spell-related mortality associations during 2000-19 using the fitted meta-regression model and the yearly grid-specific meta-predictors. We calculated the annual excess deaths, excess death ratio (excess deaths per 1000 deaths), and excess death rate (excess deaths per 100 000 population) due to cold spells for each grid across the world.Findings: Globally, 205 932 (95% empirical CI [eCI] 162 692-250 337) excess deaths, representing 3·81 (95% eCI 2·93-4·71) excess deaths per 1000 deaths (excess death ratio), and 3·03 (2·33-3·75) excess deaths per 100 000 population (excess death rate) were associated with cold spells per year between 2000 and 2019. The annual average global excess death ratio in 2016-19 increased by 0·12 percentage points and the excess death rate in 2016-19 increased by 0·18 percentage points, compared with those in 2000-03. The mortality burden varied geographically. The excess death ratio and rate were highest in Europe, whereas these indicators were lowest in Africa. Temperate climates had higher excess death ratio and rate associated with cold spells than other climate zones.Interpretation: Cold spells are associated with substantial mortality burden around the world with geographically varying patterns. Although the number of cold spells has on average been decreasing since year 2000, the public health threat of cold spells remains substantial. The findings indicate an urgency of taking local and regional measures to protect the public from the mortality burdens of cold spells.
650 7a MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAPx Hälsovetenskapx Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi0 (SwePub)303022 hsv//swe
650 7a MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCESx Health Sciencesx Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology0 (SwePub)303022 hsv//eng
7001 a Huang, Wenzhong4 aut
7001 a Zhao, Qi4 aut
7001 a Ryti, Niilo4 aut
7001 a Armstrong, Ben4 aut
7001 a Gasparrini, Antonio4 aut
7001 a Tong, Shilu4 aut
7001 a Pascal, Mathilde4 aut
7001 a Urban, Aleš4 aut
7001 a Zeka, Ariana4 aut
7001 a Lavigne, Eric4 aut
7001 a Madureira, Joana4 aut
7001 a Goodman, Patrick4 aut
7001 a Huber, Veronika4 aut
7001 a Forsberg, Bertil,c professor,d 1956-u Umeå universitet,Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin4 aut0 (Swepub:umu)befo0001
7001 a Kyselý, Jan4 aut
7001 a Sera, Francesco4 aut
7001 a Guo, Yuming4 aut
7001 a Li, Shanshan4 aut
7102 a Umeå universitetb Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin4 org
7730 t The Lancet Planetary Healthd : Elsevierg 8:2, s. e108-e116q 8:2<e108-e116x 2542-5196
8564 u https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(23)00277-2y Fulltext
8564 u https://umu.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:1845223/FULLTEXT01.pdfx primaryx Raw objecty fulltext:print
8564 8u https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-222446
8564 8u https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(23)00277-2

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