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LIBRIS Formathandbok  (Information om MARC21)
FältnamnIndikatorerMetadata
00008755naa a2200925 4500
001oai:DiVA.org:umu-143434
003SwePub
008171227s2017 | |||||||||||000 ||eng|
009oai:lup.lub.lu.se:8cf131fc-9531-4acc-80cc-dc6bb9cc268b
0247 a https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-1434342 URI
0247 a https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(17)30156-02 DOI
0247 a https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/8cf131fc-9531-4acc-80cc-dc6bb9cc268b2 URI
040 a (SwePub)umud (SwePub)lu
041 a engb eng
042 9 SwePub
072 7a ref2 swepub-contenttype
072 7a art2 swepub-publicationtype
1001 a Gasparrini, Antoniou London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine4 aut
2451 0a Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios
264 1c 2017
338 a electronic2 rdacarrier
520 a Background: Climate change can directly affect human health by varying exposure to non-optimal outdoor temperature. However, evidence on this direct impact at a global scale is limited, mainly due to issues in modelling and projecting complex and highly heterogeneous epidemiological relationships across different populations and climates.Methods: We collected observed daily time series of mean temperature and mortality counts for all causes or non-external causes only, in periods ranging from Jan 1, 1984, to Dec 31, 2015, from various locations across the globe through the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We estimated temperature-mortality relationships through a two-stage time series design. We generated current and future daily mean temperature series under four scenarios of climate change, determined by varying trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions, using five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality for cold and heat and their net change in 1990-2099 under each scenario of climate change, assuming no adaptation or population changes.Findings: Our dataset comprised 451 locations in 23 countries across nine regions of the world, including 85 879 895 deaths. Results indicate, on average, a net increase in temperature-related excess mortality under high-emission scenarios, although with important geographical differences. In temperate areas such as northern Europe, east Asia, and Australia, the less intense warming and large decrease in cold-related excess would induce a null or marginally negative net effect, with the net change in 2090-99 compared with 2010-19 ranging from -1·2% (empirical 95% CI -3·6 to 1·4) in Australia to -0·1% (-2·1 to 1·6) in east Asia under the highest emission scenario, although the decreasing trends would reverse during the course of the century. Conversely, warmer regions, such as the central and southern parts of America or Europe, and especially southeast Asia, would experience a sharp surge in heat-related impacts and extremely large net increases, with the net change at the end of the century ranging from 3·0% (-3·0 to 9·3) in Central America to 12·7% (-4·7 to 28·1) in southeast Asia under the highest emission scenario. Most of the health effects directly due to temperature increase could be avoided under scenarios involving mitigation strategies to limit emissions and further warming of the planet.Interpretation: This study shows the negative health impacts of climate change that, under high-emission scenarios, would disproportionately affect warmer and poorer regions of the world. Comparison with lower emission scenarios emphasises the importance of mitigation policies for limiting global warming and reducing the associated health risks.
650 7a MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAPx Hälsovetenskapx Arbetsmedicin och miljömedicin0 (SwePub)303032 hsv//swe
650 7a MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCESx Health Sciencesx Occupational Health and Environmental Health0 (SwePub)303032 hsv//eng
650 7a NATURVETENSKAPx Geovetenskap och miljövetenskapx Klimatforskning0 (SwePub)105012 hsv//swe
650 7a NATURAL SCIENCESx Earth and Related Environmental Sciencesx Climate Research0 (SwePub)105012 hsv//eng
650 7a MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAPx Hälsovetenskapx Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi0 (SwePub)303022 hsv//swe
650 7a MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCESx Health Sciencesx Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology0 (SwePub)303022 hsv//eng
7001 a Guo, Yumingu Monash University,University of Queensland4 aut
7001 a Sera, Francescou London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine4 aut
7001 a Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Mariau London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine4 aut
7001 a Huber, Veronikau Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research4 aut
7001 a Tong, Shiluu Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Queensland University of Technology4 aut
7001 a de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Michelineu University of São Paulo4 aut
7001 a Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilariou University of São Paulo4 aut
7001 a Lavigne, Ericu University of Ottawa4 aut
7001 a Matus Correa, Patriciau Universidad de los Andes, Chile4 aut
7001 a Valdes Ortega, Nicolasu Universidad de los Andes, Chile4 aut
7001 a Kan, Haidongu Fudan University4 aut
7001 a Osorio, Samuelu University of São Paulo4 aut
7001 a Kyselý, Janu Czech University of Life Sciences Prague,University of Oulu,Oulu University Hospital4 aut
7001 a Urban, Aleš4 aut
7001 a Jaakkola, Jouni J. K.4 aut
7001 a Ryti, Niilo R. I.u Oulu University Hospital,University of Oulu4 aut
7001 a Pascal, Mathildeu French National Public Health Agency4 aut
7001 a Goodman, Patrick G.u Dublin Institute of Technology4 aut
7001 a Zeka, Arianau Brunel University London4 aut
7001 a Michelozzi, Paola4 aut
7001 a Scortichini, Matteo4 aut
7001 a Hashizume, Masahirou Nagasaki University4 aut
7001 a Honda, Yasushiu University of Tsukuba4 aut
7001 a Hurtado-Diaz, Magaliu National Institute of Public Health, Mexico4 aut
7001 a Cesar Cruz, Juliou National Institute of Public Health, Mexico4 aut
7001 a Seposo, Xerxesu Kyoto University4 aut
7001 a Kim, Hou Seoul National University4 aut
7001 a Tobias, Aureliou CSIC Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDAEA)4 aut
7001 a Iñiguez, Carmenu University of Valencia4 aut
7001 a Forsberg, Bertilu Umeå University,Umeå universitet,Yrkes- och miljömedicin4 aut0 (Swepub:umu)befo0001
7001 a Oudin Åström, Danielu Umeå University,Lund University,Lunds universitet,Umeå universitet,Yrkes- och miljömedicin,Allmänmedicin, kardiovaskulär epidemiologi och levnadsvanor,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,Family Medicine, Cardiovascular Epidemiology and Lifestyle,Lund University Research Groups4 aut0 (Swepub:lu)edz-dio
7001 a Ragettli, Martina S.u University of Basel,Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH)4 aut
7001 a Guo, Yue Leonu National Taiwan University4 aut
7001 a Wu, Chang-Fuu National Taiwan University4 aut
7001 a Zanobetti, Antonellau Harvard University4 aut
7001 a Schwartz, Joelu Harvard University4 aut
7001 a Bell, Michelle L.u Yale University4 aut
7001 a Dang, Tran Ngocu Duy Tan University,Ho Chi Minh City Medicine and Pharmacy University4 aut
7001 a Van, Dung Dou Ho Chi Minh City Medicine and Pharmacy University4 aut
7001 a Heaviside, Clareu Public Health England,London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine4 aut
7001 a Vardoulakis, Sotirisu London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine,Institute of Occupational Medicine (IOM), Edinburgh4 aut
7001 a Hajat, Shakooru London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine4 aut
7001 a Haines, Andyu London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine4 aut
7001 a Armstrong, Benu London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine4 aut
7102 a London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicineb Monash University4 org
7730 t The Lancet Planetary Healthg 1:9, s. e360-e367q 1:9<e360-e367x 2542-5196
8564 u https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(17)30156-0y Fulltext
8564 u https://umu.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:1169417/FULLTEXT01.pdfx primaryx Raw objecty fulltext:print
8564 u http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(17)30156-0x freey FULLTEXT
8564 8u https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-143434
8564 8u https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(17)30156-0
8564 8u https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/8cf131fc-9531-4acc-80cc-dc6bb9cc268b

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