Can scrap save us from depletion?

• Old scrap constitutes varied proportions of consumption of different metals. The paper constructs a model in which the share of scrap in total supply is explained by three factors, the growth rate in overall demand for the metal; the share of metal contained in scrapped products actually recovered; and the durability of metal containing products. The model is used to study the impact on the share of scrap in total supply from changes in each of the factors. The strongest impact appears to follow from changes in the growth rate of overall demand. Inserting empirical data for copper into the model, the paper suggests, for instance, that in the long run old scrap could satisfy 100 per cent of copper demand, provided that this demand contracted by 1 per cent per year.

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