Prognostic Usefulness of the Change in N-terminal pro B-type Natriuretic Peptide Levels to Predict Mortality in a Single Community Cohort Aged ≥70 Years

• The levels of N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) are closely related to cardiac abnormalities and adverse outcomes in the general population. However, little is known about the course of NT-proBNP levels over time, the underlying conditions, and the prognostic effect of changes. To investigate these issues, we measured the NT-proBNP levels (Elecsys 2010, Roche Diagnostics) in community-dwellers participating in the Prospective Investigation of the Vasculature in Uppsala Seniors study at 70 (n = 1,005) and 75 (n = 817) years of age. The total follow-up was 8.0 years. In subjects with available results from both examinations, the median NT-proBNP levels increased from 106 pg/ml (25th to 75th percentile 62 to 174) to 125 pg/ml (25th to 75th percentile 73-234; p <0.001). The change in NT-proBNP levels was positively and independently related to male gender, baseline information on ischemic electrocardiographic changes, renal dysfunction, impaired left ventricular ejection fraction, and intercurrent cardiovascular events (e.g., myocardial infarction, stroke, or coronary revascularization). The change in NT-proBNP levels independently predicted mortality after the measurements at 75 years of age (all-cause mortality, adjusted hazard ratio 2.4, 95% confidence interval 1.6 to 3.6; cardiovascular mortality, adjusted hazard ratio 2.3, 95% confidence interval 1.2 to 4.5). Compared to those without significant NT-proBNP changes (n = 606), subjects with increasing levels (n = 162) had markedly increased all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio 4.3, 95% confidence interval 2.1 to 8.8). No subject with decreasing NT-proBNP levels (n = 49) died. In conclusion, repeat measurements of NT-proBNP might add useful information to the routine clinical assessment in subjects aged ≥70 years, because changes in their levels were associated with cardiovascular risk indicators and strongly predictive of mortality.

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