The impact of aging on regional employment: Linking spatial econometrics and population projections for a scenario analysis of future labor market outcomes in the Nordic region

The impact of aging on regional employment : Linking spatial econometrics and population projections for a scenario analysis of future labor market outcomes in the Nordic region

Dall Schmidt, Torben (author): Department of Border Region Studies, University of Southern Denmark, Denmark

Mitze, Timo (author): Department of Border Region Studies, University of Southern Denmark, Denmark, RWI and RCEA

Rauhut, Daniel, 1968- (author): Högskolan Väst,Avd för socialpedagogik och sociologi

(creator_code:org_t)

Oviedo, Spanien : Oviedo University Press, 2014
2014
English.
In: Economics and Business Letters. - Oviedo, Spanien : Oviedo University Press. - 2254-4380. ; 3:4, s. 232-246

Abstract Subject headings

Ageing is a key challenge for many countries. The purpose of this paper is to simulate how ageing affects future regional labour market outcomes. We develop a simulation procedure based on data for 71 Nordic regions in Finland, Norway, Sweden and Denmark. The procedure combines spatial econometrics and population projections for scenario analyses of future employment patterns up to 2021. Compared to a "benchmark scenario" based on projections of the working age population, we find that predicted regional labour market outcomes tell a much richer story if a combination of estimation results and population projections is used. To this end, our results can be helpful for economic policymaking, which is constantly in need of accurate regional labor market forecasts.

By the author/editor: Dall Schmidt, To ...; Kangasharju, Aki; Mitze, Timo; Rauhut, Daniel, ...

About the subject

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