WFRF:(Cloke Hannah L.)
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| Fältnamn | Indikatorer | Metadata |
|---|---|---|
| 000 | 04188naa a2200409 4500 | |
| 001 | oai:DiVA.org:uu-410128 | |
| 003 | SwePub | |
| 008 | 200603s2020 | |||||||||||000 ||eng| | |
| 024 | 7 | a https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-4101282 URI |
| 024 | 7 | a https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.37122 DOI |
| 040 | a (SwePub)uu | |
| 041 | a engb eng | |
| 042 | 9 SwePub | |
| 072 | 7 | a ref2 swepub-contenttype |
| 072 | 7 | a art2 swepub-publicationtype |
| 100 | 1 | a Titley, Helen A.u Met Off, Weather Sci, Exeter, Devon, England;Univ Reading, Dept Geog & Environm Sci, Reading, Berks, England4 aut |
| 245 | 1 0 | a A global evaluation of multi-model ensemble tropical cyclone track probability forecasts |
| 264 | c 2020-01 | |
| 264 | 1 | b Wiley,c 2020 |
| 338 | a electronic2 rdacarrier | |
| 520 | a At the Met Office, dynamic ensemble forecasts from the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS-G), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Ensemble (ECMWFENS) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Ensemble Forecast System (NCEP GEFS) global ensemble forecast models are post-processed to identify and track tropical cyclones. The ensemble members from each model are also combined into a 108-member multi-model ensemble. Track probability forecasts are produced for named tropical cyclones showing the probability of a location being within 120 km of a named tropical cyclone at any point in the next 7 days, and also broken down into each 24-hour forecast period. This study presents the verification of these named-storm track probabilities over a two-year period across all global tropical cyclone basins, and compares the results from basin to basin. The combined multi-model ensemble is found to increase the skill and value of the track probability forecasts over the best-performing individual ensemble (ECMWF ENS), for both overall 7-day track probability forecasts and 24-hour track probabilities. Basin-based and storm-based verification illustrates that the best performing individual ensemble can change from basin to basin and from storm to storm, but that the multi-model ensemble adds skill in every basin, and is also able to match the best performing individual ensemble in terms of overall probabilistic forecast skill in several high-profile case-studies. This study helps to illustrate the potential value and skill to be gained if operational tropical cyclone forecasting can continue to migrate away from a deterministic-focused forecasting environment to one where the probabilistic situation-based uncertainty information provided by the dynamic multi-model ensembles can be incorporated into operational forecasts and warnings. | |
| 650 | 7 | a NATURVETENSKAPx Geovetenskap och miljövetenskapx Meteorologi och atmosfärforskning0 (SwePub)105082 hsv//swe |
| 650 | 7 | a NATURAL SCIENCESx Earth and Related Environmental Sciencesx Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences0 (SwePub)105082 hsv//eng |
| 653 | a ensembles | |
| 653 | a probabilistic forecasting | |
| 653 | a tropical cyclones | |
| 653 | a uncertainty | |
| 653 | a verification | |
| 700 | 1 | a Bowyer, Rebecca L.u Met Off, Weather Sci, Exeter, Devon, England4 aut |
| 700 | 1 | a Cloke, Hannah L.u Uppsala universitet,Luft-, vatten- och landskapslära,Univ Reading, Dept Geog & Environm Sci, Reading, Berks, England;Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading, Berks, England;CNDS, Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci, Uppsala, Sweden4 aut0 (Swepub:uu)hancl168 |
| 710 | 2 | a Met Off, Weather Sci, Exeter, Devon, England;Univ Reading, Dept Geog & Environm Sci, Reading, Berks, Englandb Met Off, Weather Sci, Exeter, Devon, England4 org |
| 773 | 0 | t Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Societyd : Wileyg 146:726, s. 531-545q 146:726<531-545x 0035-9009x 1477-870X |
| 856 | 4 | u https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3712y Fulltext |
| 856 | 4 | u https://uu.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:1434473/FULLTEXT01.pdfx primaryx Raw objecty fulltext:print |
| 856 | 4 | u https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1002/qj.3712 |
| 856 | 4 8 | u https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-410128 |
| 856 | 4 8 | u https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3712 |
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