DECARBONISING THE SWEDISH ROAD TRANSPORTSECTOR

• Road transport contributes to around one-fifth of the EU’s total CO2 emissions and is the only majorsector in the EU where greenhouse gas emissions are still rising. Swedish road transport causes 30% ofall emissions. Addressing transport emissions is therefore crucial for meeting the Paris Agreementcommitments on Climate Change. The Swedish government aims to have a fossil-independent vehicle fleet by 2050; moreover, anemissions reduction target for the road transport sector of 80% (compared to 2010) by 2030 has beensuggested. The government-initiated investigation “Fossilfrihet på väg” sets out potential pathways, buta knowledge gap currently remains in regards to which path would be the most beneficial or leastburdensome in terms of macroeconomic effects while still decarbonising the road transport sector. This paper contributes to fill that knowledge gap by applying a vehicle stock modelling frameworkand a demand-driven global econometric model (E3ME) and by evaluating different technologypathways for Sweden to meet the 2030- and 2050- government targets. The stock model has beenadjusted to be consistent with “Fossilfrihet på väg” and uses technology deployment and cost estimatesto model the Swedish vehicle stock emissions in three technology-driven scenarios. The analysis shows that decarbonisation of transport can have positive impacts upon the Swedisheconomy, primarily through the replacement of imported fossil fuels with domestically producedelectricity and biomass, while a further stimulus is provided by the construction of infrastructure tosupport electric vehicle recharging and fuel cell refuelling. Through quick action to encourage thedeployment of new technologies and powertrains into the vehicle stock, plus policies aimed atpromoting the domestic production of sustainable biomass, Sweden can maximise the potential gainsfrom the decarbonisation process

Ämnesord

NATURVETENSKAP  -- Data- och informationsvetenskap (hsv//swe)

NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Computer and Information Sciences (hsv//eng)

Nyckelord

road transport

vehicle emissions

technology pathways

macroeconomic impacts.

Publikations- och innehållstyp

ref (ämneskategori)

art (ämneskategori)