Sökning: WFRF:(Scott Elizabeth) > Global, regional, a...
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008 | 160401s2015 | |||||||||||000 ||eng| | |
009 | oai:gup.ub.gu.se/212557 | |
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009 | oai:DiVA.org:uu-239909 | |
009 | oai:DiVA.org:miun-24242 | |
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024 | 7 | a https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/50691672 URI |
024 | 7 | a https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(14)61682-22 DOI |
024 | 7 | a https://gup.ub.gu.se/publication/2125572 URI |
024 | 7 | a http://kipublications.ki.se/Default.aspx?queryparsed=id:1304803602 URI |
024 | 7 | a https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-2399092 URI |
024 | 7 | a https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-242422 URI |
024 | 7 | a https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:du-231832 URI |
040 | a (SwePub)lud (SwePub)gud (SwePub)kid (SwePub)uud (SwePub)miund (SwePub)du | |
041 | a engb eng | |
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100 | 1 | a Naghavi, Mohsen4 aut |
245 | 1 0 | a Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 |
264 | 1 | c 2015 |
500 | a GBD 2013 Mortality and Causes of Death Collaborators, for complete list of authors see http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673614616822 | |
520 | a Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade. | |
650 | 7 | a MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAPx Klinisk medicinx Neurologi0 (SwePub)302072 hsv//swe |
650 | 7 | a MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCESx Clinical Medicinex Neurology0 (SwePub)302072 hsv//eng |
650 | 7 | a MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAPx Klinisk medicin0 (SwePub)3022 hsv//swe |
650 | 7 | a MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCESx Clinical Medicine0 (SwePub)3022 hsv//eng |
650 | 7 | a MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAPx Hälsovetenskapx Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi0 (SwePub)303022 hsv//swe |
650 | 7 | a MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCESx Health Sciencesx Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology0 (SwePub)303022 hsv//eng |
653 | a Hälsa och välfärd | |
700 | 1 | a Wang, Haidong4 aut |
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700 | 1 | a Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Abdalla, Safa4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Abd-Allah, Foad4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Aziz, Muna I. Abdel4 aut |
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700 | 1 | a Ali, Mohammed K.u Karolinska Institutet4 aut |
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700 | 1 | a Allebeck, Peteru Karolinska Institutet4 aut |
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700 | 1 | a Salman, Rustam Al-Shahi4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Alsharif, Ubai4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Alvarez, Elena4 aut |
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700 | 1 | a Amankwaa, Adansi A.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Amare, Azmeraw T.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Ameli, Omid4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Amini, Hassan4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Ammar, Walid4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Anderson, H. Ross4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Anderson, Benjamin O.4 aut |
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700 | 1 | a Apfel, Henry4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Cunningham, Solveig Argeseanu4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Arsenijevic, Valentina S. Arsicu Karolinska Institutet4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Artaman, Al4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Asad, Majed Masoud4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Asghar, Rana J.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Assadi, Reza4 aut |
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700 | 1 | a Barrero, Lope H.4 aut |
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700 | 1 | a Liu, Yang4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Lloyd, Belinda K.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Lofgren, Katherine T.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Logroscino, Giancarlo4 aut |
700 | 1 | a London, Stephanie J.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Lortet-Tieulent, Joannie4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Lotufo, Paulo A.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Lucas, Robyn M.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Lunevicius, Raimundas4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Lyons, Ronan Anthony4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Ma, Stefan4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Machado, Vasco Manuel Pedro4 aut |
700 | 1 | a MacIntyre, Michael F.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Mackay, Mark T.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a MacLachlan, Jennifer H.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Mahdi, Abbas A.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Majdan, Marek4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Malekzadeh, Reza4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Mangalam, Srikanth4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Mapoma, Christopher Chabila4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Marape, Marape4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Marcenes, Wagner4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Margono, Christopher4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Marks, Guy B.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Marzan, Melvin Barrientos4 aut |
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700 | 1 | a Mashal, Mohammad Taufi Q.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Masiye, Felix4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Mason-Jones, Amanda J.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Matzopolous, Richard4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Mayosi, Bongani M.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Mazorodze, Tasara T.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a McGrath, John J.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Mckay, Abigail C.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Mckee, Martin4 aut |
700 | 1 | a McLain, Abigail4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Meaney, Peter A.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Mehndiratta, Man Mohan4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Melaku, Yohannes Adama4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Meltzer, Michele4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Memish, Ziad A.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Mendoza, Walter4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Mensah, George A.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Meretoja, Atte4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Mhimbira, Francis A.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Miller, Ted R.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Mills, Edward J.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Misganaw, Awoke4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Mishra, Santosh K.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Mock, Charles N.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Moffitt, Terrie E.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Ibrahim, Norlinah Mohamed4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Mokdad, Ali H.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Mola, Glen Liddell4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Monasta, Lorenzo4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Monis, Jonathan de la Cruz4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Hernandez, Julio C. Montaez4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Montico, Marcella4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Montine, Thomas J.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Mooney, Meghan D.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Moore, Ami R.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Moran, Andrew E.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Mori, Rintaro4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Moschandreas, Joanna4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Moturi, Wilkister Nyaora4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Moyer, Madeline L.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Mozaffarian, Dariush4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Mueller, Ulrich O.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Mukaigawara, Mitsuru4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Mullany, Erin C.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Murray, Joseph4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Mustapha, Adetoun4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Naghavi, Paria4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Naheed, Aliya4 aut |
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700 | 1 | a Naldi, Luigi4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Nand, Devina4 aut |
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700 | 1 | a Newton, Charles R.u Karolinska Institutet4 aut |
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700 | 1 | a Ngalesoni, Frida Namnyak4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Nguyen, Grant4 aut |
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700 | 1 | a Ortiz, Alberto4 aut |
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700 | 1 | a Pandian, Jeyaraj D.4 aut |
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700 | 1 | a Paul, Vinod K.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Pavlin, Boris4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Pearce, Neil4 aut |
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700 | 1 | a Perez-Padilla, Rogelio4 aut |
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700 | 1 | a Pesudovs, Konrad4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Peterson, Carrie B.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Petzold, Max,d 1973u Gothenburg University,Göteborgs universitet,Akademistatistik,Centre for Applied Biostatistics4 aut0 (Swepub:gu)xpemax |
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700 | 1 | a Phillips, David E.4 aut |
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773 | 0 | t The Lancetg 385:9963, s. 117-171q 385:9963<117-171x 1474-547Xx 0140-6736 |
856 | 4 | u http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(14)61682-2y FULLTEXT |
856 | 4 8 | u https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/5069167 |
856 | 4 8 | u https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(14)61682-2 |
856 | 4 8 | u https://gup.ub.gu.se/publication/212557 |
856 | 4 8 | u http://kipublications.ki.se/Default.aspx?queryparsed=id:130480360 |
856 | 4 8 | u https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-239909 |
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