Effects of regional differences and demography in modelling foot-and-mouth disease in cattle at the national scale

Sellman, Stefan, 1984- (författare): Linköpings universitet,Ekologisk och miljövetenskaplig modellering,Tekniska fakulteten,University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom

Lindström, Tom, 1977- (författare): Linköpings universitet,Ekologisk och miljövetenskaplig modellering,Tekniska fakulteten

Miller, R. S. (författare): USDA APHIS Veterinary Services, Center for Epidemiology and Animal Health, Fort Collins, CO, United States

Portacci, K. (författare): USDA APHIS Veterinary Services, Center for Epidemiology and Animal Health, Fort Collins, CO, United States

Tildesley, M. J. (författare): University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom

(creator_code:org_t)

2019-12-13
2020
Engelska.
Ingår i: Interface Focus. - : Royal Society Publishing. - 2042-8898 .- 2042-8901. ; 10:1

Relaterad länk:: https://royalsociety...; visa fler...; https://urn.kb.se/re...; https://doi.org/10.1...; visa färre...

Abstract Ämnesord

Stäng

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a fast-spreading viral infection that can produce large and costly outbreaks in livestock populations. Transmission occurs at multiple spatial scales, as can the actions used to control outbreaks. The US cattle industry is spatially expansive, with heterogeneous distributions of animals and infrastructure. We have developed a model that incorporates the effects of scale for both disease transmission and control actions, applied here in simulating FMD outbreaks in US cattle. We simulated infection initiating in each of the 3049 counties in the contiguous US, 100 times per county. When initial infection was located in specific regions, large outbreaks were more likely to occur, driven by infrastructure and other demographic attributes such as premises clustering and number of cattle on premises. Sensitivity analyses suggest these attributes had more impact on outbreak metrics than the ranges of estimated disease parameter values. Additionally, although shipping accounted for a small percentage of overall transmission, areas receiving the most animal shipments tended to have other attributes that increase the probability of large outbreaks. The importance of including spatial and demographic heterogeneity in modelling outbreak trajectories and control actions is illustrated by specific regions consistently producing larger outbreaks than others. © 2019 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Av författaren/redakt...: Tsao, K.; Sellman, Stefan, ...; Beck-Johnson, L. ...; Murrieta, D. J.; Hallman, C.; Lindström, Tom, ...; visa fler...; Miller, R. S.; Portacci, K.; Tildesley, M. J.; Webb, C. T.; visa färre...

Om ämnet

Kungliga biblioteket hanterar dina personuppgifter i enlighet med EU:s dataskyddsförordning (2018), GDPR. Läs mer om hur det funkar här.
Så här hanterar KB dina uppgifter vid användning av denna tjänst.