Reduced El Niño variability in the mid-Pliocene according to the PlioMIP2 ensemble

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Fältnamn	Indikatorer	Metadata
000		05000naa a2200697 4500
001		oai:DiVA.org:su-200917
003		SwePub
008		220114s2021 \| \|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|000 \|\|eng\|
024	7	a https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-2009172 URI
024	7	a https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2427-20212 DOI
040		a (SwePub)su
041		a engb eng
042		9 SwePub
072	7	a ref2 swepub-contenttype
072	7	a art2 swepub-publicationtype
100	1	a Oldeman, Arthur M.4 aut
245	1 0	a Reduced El Niño variability in the mid-Pliocene according to the PlioMIP2 ensemble
264		c 2021-12-01
264	1	b Copernicus GmbH,c 2021
338		a print2 rdacarrier
520		a The mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264–3.025 Ma) is the most recent geological period during which atmospheric CO2 levels were similar to recent historical values (∼400 ppm). Several proxy reconstructions for the mid-Pliocene show highly reduced zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradients in the tropical Pacific Ocean, indicating an El Niño-like mean state. However, past modelling studies do not show these highly reduced gradients. Efforts to understand mid-Pliocene climate dynamics have led to the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP). Results from the first phase (PlioMIP1) showed clear El Niño variability (albeit significantly reduced) and did not show the greatly reduced time-mean zonal SST gradient suggested by some of the proxies.In this work, we study El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability in the PlioMIP2 ensemble, which consists of additional global coupled climate models and updated boundary conditions compared to PlioMIP1. We quantify ENSO amplitude, period, spatial structure and “flavour”, as well as the tropical Pacific annual mean state in mid-Pliocene and pre-industrial simulations. Results show a reduced ENSO amplitude in the model-ensemble mean (−24 %) with respect to the pre-industrial, with 15 out of 17 individual models showing such a reduction. Furthermore, the spectral power of this variability considerably decreases in the 3–4-year band. The spatial structure of the dominant empirical orthogonal function shows no particular change in the patterns of tropical Pacific variability in the model-ensemble mean, compared to the pre-industrial. Although the time-mean zonal SST gradient in the equatorial Pacific decreases for 14 out of 17 models (0.2 ∘C reduction in the ensemble mean), there does not seem to be a correlation with the decrease in ENSO amplitude. The models showing the most “El Niño-like” mean state changes show a similar ENSO amplitude to that in the pre-industrial reference, while models showing more “La Niña-like” mean state changes generally show a large reduction in ENSO variability. The PlioMIP2 results show a reasonable agreement with both time-mean proxies indicating a reduced zonal SST gradient and reconstructions indicating a reduced, or similar, ENSO variability.
650	7	a NATURVETENSKAPx Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap0 (SwePub)1052 hsv//swe
650	7	a NATURAL SCIENCESx Earth and Related Environmental Sciences0 (SwePub)1052 hsv//eng
700	1	a Baatsen, Michiel L. J.4 aut
700	1	a von Der Heydt, Anna S.4 aut
700	1	a Dijkstra, Henk A.4 aut
700	1	a Tindall, Julia C.4 aut
700	1	a Abe-Ouchi, Ayako4 aut
700	1	a Booth, Alice R.4 aut
700	1	a Brady, Esther C.4 aut
700	1	a Chan, Wing-Le4 aut
700	1	a Chandan, Deepak4 aut
700	1	a Chandler, Mark A.4 aut
700	1	a Contoux, Camille4 aut
700	1	a Feng, Ran4 aut
700	1	a Guo, Chuncheng4 aut
700	1	a Haywood, Alan M.4 aut
700	1	a Hunter, Stephen J.4 aut
700	1	a Kamae, Youichi4 aut
700	1	a Li, Qiangu Stockholms universitet,Institutionen för naturgeografi4 aut0 (Swepub:su)qli
700	1	a Li, Xiangyu4 aut
700	1	a Lohmann, Gerrit4 aut
700	1	a Lunt, Daniel J.4 aut
700	1	a Nisancioglu, Kerim H.4 aut
700	1	a Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.4 aut
700	1	a Peltier, W. Richard4 aut
700	1	a Pontes, Gabriel M.4 aut
700	1	a Ramstein, Gilles4 aut
700	1	a Sohl, Linda E.4 aut
700	1	a Stepanek, Christian4 aut
700	1	a Tan, Ning4 aut
700	1	a Zhang, Qiongu Stockholms universitet,Institutionen för naturgeografi4 aut0 (Swepub:su)qzhan
700	1	a Zhang, Zhongshi4 aut
700	1	a Wainer, Ilana4 aut
700	1	a Williams, Charles J. R.4 aut
710	2	a Stockholms universitetb Institutionen för naturgeografi4 org
773	0	t Climate of the Pastd : Copernicus GmbHg 17:6, s. 2427-2450q 17:6<2427-2450x 1814-9324x 1814-9332
856	4	u https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2427-2021y Fulltext
856	4	u https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/17/2427/2021/cp-17-2427-2021.pdf
856	4 8	u https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-200917
856	4 8	u https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2427-2021

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