Attribution of Amazon floods to modes of climate variability: A review

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Attribution of Amazon floods to modes of climate variability : A review

Towner, Jamie (författare): Univ Reading, Dept Geog & Environm Sci, Reading RG6 6AB, Berks, England.

Cloke, Hannah L. (författare): Uppsala universitet,Luft-, vatten- och landskapslära,Univ Reading, Dept Geog & Environm Sci, Reading RG6 6AB, Berks, England.;Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading, Berks, England.;Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden.

Lavado, Waldo (författare): SENAMH, Serv Nacl Meteorol & Hidrol, Lima, Peru.

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Santini, William (författare): Univ Toulouse 3, Geosci Environm Toulouse Observ Midi Pyrenees GET, Toulouse, France.

Bazo, Juan (författare): Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Ctr, The Hague, Netherlands.;Univ Tecnol Peru UTP, Lima, Peru.

Coughlan de Perez, Erin (författare): Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Ctr, The Hague, Netherlands.;Columbia Univ, Int Res Inst Climate & Soc, Palisades, NY USA.

Stephens, Elisabeth M. (författare): Univ Reading, Dept Geog & Environm Sci, Reading RG6 6AB, Berks, England.

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Univ Reading, Dept Geog & Environm Sci, Reading RG6 6AB, Berks, England Luft-, vatten- och landskapslära (creator_code:org_t)

2020-10-18
2020
Engelska.
Ingår i: Meteorological Applications. - : WILEY. - 1350-4827 .- 1469-8080. ; 27:5

Relaterad länk:: https://doi.org/10.1...; visa fler...; https://uu.diva-port... (primary) (Raw object); https://rmets.online...; https://urn.kb.se/re...; https://doi.org/10.1...; visa färre...

Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)

Abstract Ämnesord

Stäng

Anomalous conditions in the oceans and atmosphere have the potential to be used to enhance the predictability of flood events, enabling earlier warnings to reduce risk. In the Amazon basin, extreme flooding is consistently attributed to warmer or cooler conditions in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic oceans, with some evidence linking floods to other hydroclimatic drivers such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This review evaluates the impact of several hydroclimatic drivers on rainfall and river discharge regimes independently, aggregating all the information of previous studies to provide an up-to-date depiction of what we currently know and do not know about how variations in climate impact flooding in the Amazon. Additionally, 34 major flood events that have occurred since 1950 in the Amazon and their attribution to climate anomalies are documented and evaluated. This review finds that despite common agreement within the literature describing the relationship between phases of climate indices and hydrometeorological variables, results linking climate anomalies and flood hazard are often limited to correlation rather than to causation, while the understanding of their usefulness for flood forecasting is weak. There is a need to understand better the ocean-atmosphere response mechanisms that led to previous flood events. In particular, examining the oceanic and atmospheric conditions preceding individual hydrological extremes, as opposed to composite analysis, could provide insightful information into the magnitude and spatial distribution of anomalous sea surface temperatures required to produce extreme floods. Importantly, such an analysis could provide meaningful thresholds on which to base seasonal flood forecasts.

Ämnesord

NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Klimatforskning (hsv//swe)
NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Climate Research (hsv//eng)
NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Oceanografi, hydrologi och vattenresurser (hsv//swe)
NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources (hsv//eng)

Nyckelord

Amazon basin
El Ni&#241
o Southern Oscillation
floods
hydroclimatic drivers
Madden&#8211
Julian Oscillation
river flow

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Av författaren/redakt...: Towner, Jamie; Cloke, Hannah L.; Lavado, Waldo; Santini, William; Bazo, Juan; Coughlan de Pere ...; visa fler...; Stephens, Elisab ...; visa färre...

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