CMEs and SEPs During November-December 2020: A Challenge for Real-Time Space Weather Forecasting

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CMEs and SEPs During November-December 2020 : A Challenge for Real-Time Space Weather Forecasting

Palmerio, Erika (författare): Univ Calif Berkeley, Space Sci Lab, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA.;Univ Corp Atmospher Res, CPAESS, Boulder, CO 80305 USA.;Predict Sci Inc, San Diego, CA 92121 USA.

Lee, Christina O. (författare): Univ Calif Berkeley, Space Sci Lab, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA.

Mays, M. Leila (författare): NASA, Goddard Space Flight Ctr, Heliophys Sci Div, Greenbelt, MD USA.

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Luhmann, Janet G. (författare): Univ Calif Berkeley, Space Sci Lab, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA.

Lario, David (författare): NASA, Goddard Space Flight Ctr, Heliophys Sci Div, Greenbelt, MD USA.

Sanchez-Cano, Beatriz (författare): Univ Leicester, Sch Phys & Astron, Leicester, Leics, England.

Richardson, Ian G. (författare): NASA, Goddard Space Flight Ctr, Heliophys Sci Div, Greenbelt, MD USA.;Univ Maryland, Dept Astron, College Pk, MD 20742 USA.

Vainio, Rami (författare): Univ Turku, Dept Phys & Astron, Turku, Finland.

Stevens, Michael L. (författare): Harvard Smithsonian Ctr Astrophys, 60 Garden St, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA.

Cohen, Christina M. S. (författare): CALTECH, Pasadena, CA 91125 USA.

Steinvall, Konrad (författare): Uppsala universitet,Institutet för rymdfysik, Uppsalaavdelningen,Rymd- och plasmafysik,Swedish Inst Space Phys, Uppsala, Sweden.

Mostl, Christian (författare): Austrian Acad Sci, Space Res Inst, Graz, Austria.

Weiss, Andreas J. (författare): Austrian Acad Sci, Space Res Inst, Graz, Austria.;Karl Franzens Univ Graz, Inst Phys, Graz, Austria.

Nieves-Chinchilla, Teresa (författare): NASA, Goddard Space Flight Ctr, Heliophys Sci Div, Greenbelt, MD USA.

Li, Yan (författare): Univ Calif Berkeley, Space Sci Lab, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA.

Larson, Davin E. (författare): Univ Calif Berkeley, Space Sci Lab, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA.

Heyner, Daniel (författare): TU Braunschweig, Inst Geophys & Extraterr Phys, Braunschweig, Germany.

Bale, Stuart D. (författare): Univ Calif Berkeley, Space Sci Lab, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA.;Univ Calif Berkeley, Phys Dept, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA.

Galvin, Antoinette B. (författare): Univ New Hampshire, Space Sci Ctr, Durham, NH 03824 USA.

Holmstrom, Mats (författare): Swedish Inst Space Phys, Kiruna, Sweden.

Khotyaintsev, Yuri, V (författare): Swedish Inst Space Phys, Uppsala, Sweden.

Maksimovic, Milan (författare): Univ Paris Diderot, Univ PSL, Sorbonne Univ, LESIA,Observ Paris,CNRS, Meudon, France.

Mitrofanov, Igor G. (författare): Russian Acad Sci, Space Res Inst, Moscow, Russia.

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Univ Calif Berkeley, Space Sci Lab, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA;Univ Corp Atmospher Res, CPAESS, Boulder, CO 80305 USA.;Predict Sci Inc, San Diego, CA 92121 USA. Univ Calif Berkeley, Space Sci Lab, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA. (creator_code:org_t)

American Geophysical Union (AGU), 2022
2022
Engelska.
Ingår i: Space Weather. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 1542-7390. ; 20:5

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Predictions of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar energetic particles (SEPs) are a central issue in space weather forecasting. In recent years, interest in space weather predictions has expanded to include impacts at other planets beyond Earth as well as spacecraft scattered throughout the heliosphere. In this sense, the scope of space weather science now encompasses the whole heliospheric system, and multipoint measurements of solar transients can provide useful insights and validations for prediction models. In this work, we aim to analyze the whole inner heliospheric context between two eruptive flares that took place in late 2020, that is, the M4.4 flare of 29 November and the C7.4 flare of 7 December. This period is especially interesting because the STEREO-A spacecraft was located similar to 60 degrees east of the Sun-Earth line, giving us the opportunity to test the capabilities of "predictions at 360 degrees" using remote-sensing observations from the Lagrange L1 and L5 points as input. We simulate the CMEs that were ejected during our period of interest and the SEPs accelerated by their shocks using the WSA-Enlil-SEPMOD modeling chain and four sets of input parameters, forming a "mini-ensemble." We validate our results using in situ observations at six locations, including Earth and Mars. We find that, despite some limitations arising from the models' architecture and assumptions, CMEs and shock-accelerated SEPs can be reasonably studied and forecast in real time at least out to several tens of degrees away from the eruption site using the prediction tools employed here.

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CMEs and SEPs During November-December 2020 : A Challenge for Real-Time Space Weather Forecasting

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