Aluminium for the future: Modelling the global production, market supply, demand, price and long term development of the global reserves

Sverdrup, Harald (author): Lund University,Lunds universitet,Avdelningen för kemiteknik,Institutionen för processteknik och tillämpad biovetenskap,Institutioner vid LTH,Lunds Tekniska Högskola,Division of Chemical Engineering,Department of Process and Life Science Engineering,Departments at LTH,Faculty of Engineering, LTH

Ragnarsdottir, Kristin Vala (author)

Koca, Deniz (author): Lund University,Lunds universitet,Centrum för miljö- och klimatvetenskap (CEC),Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC),Faculty of Science

(creator_code:org_t)

Elsevier BV, 2015
2015
English.
In: Resources, Conservation & Recycling. - : Elsevier BV. - 0921-3449. ; 103:103, s. 139-154

Related links:: http://dx.doi.org/10...; show more...; https://lup.lub.lu.s...; https://doi.org/10.1...; show less...

Abstract Subject headings

The reserves, production from mines, supply of aluminium to society and mass fluxes of aluminium in society was assessed using an integrated systems dynamics model (ALUMINIUM) in order to reconstruct the past and investigate potential future scenarios. The investigations for input data show that the mine- able aluminium reserves are large, but finite. We get an average value for the ultimately recoverable reserve to be about 20–25 billion ton aluminium. The production of aluminium at present is 50 million ton per year. Continuing business-as-usual consumption with sustained global population growth above 7 billion people combined with a decline in cheap fossil fuels, aluminium may in the long perspective be a more expensive product than today. Should the event of a need for substituting a significant part of copper, iron, steel and stainless steel with aluminium arise, the time to scarcity for aluminium could become an issue within the next four decades. Ultimately, continuation of the aluminium production may in the future become limited by access to energy. Whereas aluminium primary production may go through a peak in the next decades, supply to society will not reach a peak before the end of the century, because of recycling from the stock in society. The model suggests that the supply level will decline to 2014 level sometime around 2250, or 230 years into the future.

About the subject

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