Learning from the 2018 heatwave in the context of climate change: are high-temperature extremes important for adaptation in Scotland?

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Fältnamn	Indikatorer	Metadata
000		03976naa a2200481 4500
001		oai:DiVA.org:su-180621
003		SwePub
008		200420s2020 \| \|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|000 \|\|eng\|
024	7	a https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-1806212 URI
024	7	a https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab69992 DOI
040		a (SwePub)su
041		a engb eng
042		9 SwePub
072	7	a ref2 swepub-contenttype
072	7	a art2 swepub-publicationtype
100	1	a Undorf, Sabineu Stockholms universitet,Meteorologiska institutionen (MISU),University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom4 aut0 (Swepub:su)saun7142
245	1 0	a Learning from the 2018 heatwave in the context of climate change :b are high-temperature extremes important for adaptation in Scotland?
264		c 2020-03-05
264	1	b IOP Publishing,c 2020
338		a print2 rdacarrier
520		a To understand whether high temperatures and temperature extremes are important for climate change adaptation in Scotland, we place the 2018 heatwave in the context of past, present, and future climate, and provide a rapid but comprehensive impact analysis. The observed hottest day (d), 5 d, and 30 d period of 2018 and the 5 d period with the warmest nights had return periods of 5-15 years for 1950-2018. The warmest night and the maximum 30 d average nighttime temperature were more unusual with return periods of >30 years. Anthropogenic climate change since 1850 has made all these high-temperature extremes more likely. Higher risk ratios are found for experiments from the CMIP6-generation global climate model HadGEM3-GA6 compared to those from the very-large ensemble system weather@home. Between them, the best estimates of the risk ratios for daytime extremes range between 1.2-2.4, 1.2-2.3, and 1.4-4.0 for the 1, 5, and 30 d averages. For the corresponding nighttime extremes, the values are higher and the ranges wider (1.5- >50, 1.5-5.5, and 1.6- >50). The short-period nighttime extremes were more likely in 2018 than in 2017, suggesting a contribution from year-to-year climate variability to the risk enhancement of extreme temperatures due to anthropogenic effects. Climate projections suggest further substantial increases in the likelihood of 2018 temperatures between now and 2050, and that towards the end of the century every summer might be as hot as 2018. Major negative impacts occurred, especially on rural sectors, while transport and water infrastructure alleviated most impacts by implementing costly special measures. Overall, Scotland could cope with the impacts of the 2018 heatwave. However, given the likelihood increase of high-temperature extremes, uncertainty about consequences of even higher temperatures and/or repeated heatwaves, and substantial costs of preventing negative impacts, we conclude that despite its cool climate, high-temperature extremes are important to consider for climate change adaptation in Scotland.
650	7	a NATURVETENSKAPx Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap0 (SwePub)1052 hsv//swe
650	7	a NATURAL SCIENCESx Earth and Related Environmental Sciences0 (SwePub)1052 hsv//eng
653		a climate change
653		a temperature extremes
653		a adaptation
653		a heatwave impacts
653		a summer 2018
653		a event attribution
653		a UK climate
700	1	a Allen, K.4 aut
700	1	a Hagg, J.4 aut
700	1	a Li, S.4 aut
700	1	a Lott, F. C.4 aut
700	1	a Metzger, M. J.4 aut
700	1	a Sparrow, S. N.4 aut
700	1	a Tett, S. F. B.4 aut
710	2	a Stockholms universitetb Meteorologiska institutionen (MISU)4 org
773	0	t Environmental Research Lettersd : IOP Publishingg 15:3q 15:3x 1748-9326
856	4	u https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab6999y Fulltext
856	4	u https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab6999
856	4 8	u https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-180621
856	4 8	u https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab6999

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Av författaren/redakt...: Undorf, Sabine; Allen, K.; Hagg, J.; Li, S.; Lott, F. C.; Metzger, M. J.; visa fler...; Sparrow, S. N.; Tett, S. F. B.; visa färre...

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