The likelihood ratio as value of evidence—more than a question of numbers

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Fältnamn	Indikatorer	Metadata
000		03591naa a2200397 4500
001		oai:DiVA.org:liu-79770
003		SwePub
008		120814s2012 \| \|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|000 \|\|eng\|
024	7	a https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-797702 URI
024	7	a https://doi.org/10.1093/lpr/mgs0192 DOI
040		a (SwePub)liu
041		a engb eng
042		9 SwePub
072	7	a ref2 swepub-contenttype
072	7	a art2 swepub-publicationtype
100	1	a Nordgaard, Anders,d 1962-u Linköpings universitet,Statistik,Filosofiska fakulteten,Statens Kriminaltekniska Laboratorium, Linköping, Sweden4 aut0 (Swepub:liu)andno60
245	1 0	a The likelihood ratio as value of evidence—more than a question of numbers
264		c 2012-07-31
264	1	a Oxford :b Oxford University Press,c 2012
338		a print2 rdacarrier
520		a The ability of the experienced forensic scientist to evaluate his or her results given the circumstances and propositions in a particular case and present this to the court in a clear and concise way is very important for the legal process. Court officials can neither be expected to be able to interpret scientific data, nor is it their task to do so (in our opinion). The duty of the court is rather to perform the ultimate evidence evaluation of all the information in the case combined, including police reports, statements from suspects and victims, witness reports forensic expert statements, etc. Without the aid of the forensic expert, valuable forensic results may be overlooked or misinterpreted in this process. The scientific framework for forensic interpretation stems from Bayesian theory. The resulting likelihood ratio, which may be expressed using a verbal or a numerical scale, compares how frequent are the obtained results given that one of the propositions holds with how frequent they are given that the other proposition holds. A common misunderstanding is that this approach must be restricted to forensic areas such as DNA evidence where extensive background information is present in the form of comprehensive databases. In this article we argue that the approach with likelihood ratios is equally applicable in areas where the results rely on scientific background data combined with the knowledge and experience of the forensic scientist. In such forensic areas the scale of the likelihood ratio may be rougher compared to a DNA case, but the information that is conveyed by the likelihood ratio may nevertheless be highly valuable for the court.
650	7	a NATURVETENSKAPx Matematikx Sannolikhetsteori och statistik0 (SwePub)101062 hsv//swe
650	7	a NATURAL SCIENCESx Mathematicsx Probability Theory and Statistics0 (SwePub)101062 hsv//eng
650	7	a SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAPx Juridikx Juridik och samhälle0 (SwePub)505022 hsv//swe
650	7	a SOCIAL SCIENCESx Lawx Law and Society0 (SwePub)505022 hsv//eng
653		a forensic interpretation
653		a Bayes' theorem
653		a logical approach
653		a evidence value
653		a likelihood
653		a assessment
700	1	a Rasmusson, Birgittau Linköpings universitet,Medicinsk mikrobiologi,Hälsouniversitetet,Statens Kriminaltekniska Laboratorium, Linköping, Sweden4 aut0 (Swepub:liu)birra51
710	2	a Linköpings universitetb Statistik4 org
773	0	t Law, Probability and Riskd Oxford : Oxford University Pressg 11, s. 303-315q 11<303-315x 1470-8396x 1470-840X
856	4 8	u https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-79770
856	4 8	u https://doi.org/10.1093/lpr/mgs019

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