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  • Franke, James A.University of Chicago (author)

The GGCMI Phase 2 emulators : Global gridded crop model responses to changes in CO2, temperature, water, and nitrogen (version 1.0)

  • Article/chapterEnglish2020

Publisher, publication year, extent ...

  • 2020-09-03
  • Copernicus GmbH,2020
  • 24 s.

Numbers

  • LIBRIS-ID:oai:lup.lub.lu.se:30898cc7-7e06-4d93-b9cb-8ac85321ce54
  • https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/30898cc7-7e06-4d93-b9cb-8ac85321ce54URI
  • https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3995-2020DOI

Supplementary language notes

  • Language:English
  • Summary in:English

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Classification

  • Subject category:art swepub-publicationtype
  • Subject category:ref swepub-contenttype

Notes

  • Statistical emulation allows combining advantageous features of statistical and process-based crop models for understanding the effects of future climate changes on crop yields. We describe here the development of emulators for nine process-based crop models and five crops using output from the Global Gridded Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) Phase 2. The GGCMI Phase 2 experiment is designed with the explicit goal of producing a structured training dataset for emulator development that samples across four dimensions relevant to crop yields: Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, temperature, water supply, and nitrogen inputs (CTWN). Simulations are run under two different adaptation assumptions: That growing seasons shorten in warmer climates, and that cultivar choice allows growing seasons to remain fixed. The dataset allows emulating the climatological-mean yield response of all models with a simple polynomial in mean growing-season values. Climatological-mean yields are a central metric in climate change impact analysis; we show here that they can be captured without relying on interannual variations. In general, emulation errors are negligible relative to differences across crop models or even across climate model scenarios; errors become significant only in some marginal lands where crops are not currently grown. We demonstrate that the resulting GGCMI emulators can reproduce yields under realistic future climate simulations, even though the GGCMI Phase 2 dataset is constructed with uniform CTWN offsets, suggesting that the effects of changes in temperature and precipitation distributions are small relative to those of changing means. The resulting emulators therefore capture relevant crop model responses in a lightweight, computationally tractable form, providing a tool that can facilitate model comparison, diagnosis of interacting factors affecting yields, and integrated assessment of climate impacts.

Subject headings and genre

Added entries (persons, corporate bodies, meetings, titles ...)

  • Müller, ChristophLeibniz Association(Swepub:lu)nord-crm (author)
  • Elliott, JoshuaUniversity of Chicago,NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (author)
  • Ruane, Alex C.Center for Climate Systems Research (author)
  • Jägermeyr, JonasCenter for Climate Systems Research,University of Chicago,Leibniz Association,NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (author)
  • Snyder, AbigailPacific Northwest National Laboratory (author)
  • Dury, MarieUniversity of Liège (author)
  • Falloon, Pete D.Met Office (author)
  • Folberth, ChristianInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (author)
  • François, LouisUniversity of Liège (author)
  • Hank, TobiasWorld Orthopaedic Concern (author)
  • Cesar Izaurralde, R.Texas A and M University,University of Maryland (author)
  • Jacquemin, IngridUniversity of Liège (author)
  • Jones, CurtisUniversity of Maryland (author)
  • Li, MichelleUniversity of Chicago (author)
  • Liu, WenfengUniversity of Paris-Saclay,Eawag: Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology (author)
  • Olin, StefanLund University,Lunds universitet,BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate,Centrum för miljö- och klimatvetenskap (CEC),Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system,Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap,Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC),Faculty of Science,Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science(Swepub:lu)nate-sao (author)
  • Phillips, MeridelNASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies,Center for Climate Systems Research (author)
  • Pugh, Thomas A.M.University of Birmingham(Swepub:lu)th5432pu (author)
  • Reddy, AshwanUniversity of Maryland (author)
  • Williams, KarinaUniversity of Exeter,Met Office (author)
  • Wang, ZiweiUniversity of Chicago (author)
  • Zabel, FlorianWorld Orthopaedic Concern (author)
  • Moyer, Elisabeth J.University of Chicago (author)
  • University of ChicagoLeibniz Association (creator_code:org_t)

Related titles

  • In:Geoscientific Model Development: Copernicus GmbH13:9, s. 3995-40181991-959X1991-9603

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