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Sökning: WFRF:(Williams Michelle C.) > The GGCMI Phase 2 e...

LIBRIS Formathandbok  (Information om MARC21)
FältnamnIndikatorerMetadata
00005646naa a2200589 4500
001oai:lup.lub.lu.se:30898cc7-7e06-4d93-b9cb-8ac85321ce54
003SwePub
008201119s2020 | |||||||||||000 ||eng|
0247 a https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/30898cc7-7e06-4d93-b9cb-8ac85321ce542 URI
0247 a https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3995-20202 DOI
040 a (SwePub)lu
041 a engb eng
042 9 SwePub
072 7a art2 swepub-publicationtype
072 7a ref2 swepub-contenttype
1001 a Franke, James A.u University of Chicago4 aut
2451 0a The GGCMI Phase 2 emulators : Global gridded crop model responses to changes in CO2, temperature, water, and nitrogen (version 1.0)
264 c 2020-09-03
264 1b Copernicus GmbH,c 2020
300 a 24 s.
520 a Statistical emulation allows combining advantageous features of statistical and process-based crop models for understanding the effects of future climate changes on crop yields. We describe here the development of emulators for nine process-based crop models and five crops using output from the Global Gridded Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) Phase 2. The GGCMI Phase 2 experiment is designed with the explicit goal of producing a structured training dataset for emulator development that samples across four dimensions relevant to crop yields: Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, temperature, water supply, and nitrogen inputs (CTWN). Simulations are run under two different adaptation assumptions: That growing seasons shorten in warmer climates, and that cultivar choice allows growing seasons to remain fixed. The dataset allows emulating the climatological-mean yield response of all models with a simple polynomial in mean growing-season values. Climatological-mean yields are a central metric in climate change impact analysis; we show here that they can be captured without relying on interannual variations. In general, emulation errors are negligible relative to differences across crop models or even across climate model scenarios; errors become significant only in some marginal lands where crops are not currently grown. We demonstrate that the resulting GGCMI emulators can reproduce yields under realistic future climate simulations, even though the GGCMI Phase 2 dataset is constructed with uniform CTWN offsets, suggesting that the effects of changes in temperature and precipitation distributions are small relative to those of changing means. The resulting emulators therefore capture relevant crop model responses in a lightweight, computationally tractable form, providing a tool that can facilitate model comparison, diagnosis of interacting factors affecting yields, and integrated assessment of climate impacts.
650 7a NATURVETENSKAPx Geovetenskap och miljövetenskapx Miljövetenskap0 (SwePub)105022 hsv//swe
650 7a NATURAL SCIENCESx Earth and Related Environmental Sciencesx Environmental Sciences0 (SwePub)105022 hsv//eng
7001 a Müller, Christophu Leibniz Association4 aut0 (Swepub:lu)nord-crm
7001 a Elliott, Joshuau University of Chicago,NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies4 aut
7001 a Ruane, Alex C.u Center for Climate Systems Research4 aut
7001 a Jägermeyr, Jonasu Center for Climate Systems Research,University of Chicago,Leibniz Association,NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies4 aut
7001 a Snyder, Abigailu Pacific Northwest National Laboratory4 aut
7001 a Dury, Marieu University of Liège4 aut
7001 a Falloon, Pete D.u Met Office4 aut
7001 a Folberth, Christianu International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis4 aut
7001 a François, Louisu University of Liège4 aut
7001 a Hank, Tobiasu World Orthopaedic Concern4 aut
7001 a Cesar Izaurralde, R.u Texas A and M University,University of Maryland4 aut
7001 a Jacquemin, Ingridu University of Liège4 aut
7001 a Jones, Curtisu University of Maryland4 aut
7001 a Li, Michelleu University of Chicago4 aut
7001 a Liu, Wenfengu University of Paris-Saclay,Eawag: Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology4 aut
7001 a Olin, Stefanu Lund University,Lunds universitet,BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate,Centrum för miljö- och klimatvetenskap (CEC),Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system,Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap,Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC),Faculty of Science,Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science4 aut0 (Swepub:lu)nate-sao
7001 a Phillips, Meridelu NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies,Center for Climate Systems Research4 aut
7001 a Pugh, Thomas A.M.u University of Birmingham4 aut0 (Swepub:lu)th5432pu
7001 a Reddy, Ashwanu University of Maryland4 aut
7001 a Williams, Karinau University of Exeter,Met Office4 aut
7001 a Wang, Ziweiu University of Chicago4 aut
7001 a Zabel, Florianu World Orthopaedic Concern4 aut
7001 a Moyer, Elisabeth J.u University of Chicago4 aut
7102 a University of Chicagob Leibniz Association4 org
7730 t Geoscientific Model Developmentd : Copernicus GmbHg 13:9, s. 3995-4018q 13:9<3995-4018x 1991-959Xx 1991-9603
8564 u http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3995-2020x freey FULLTEXT
8564 u https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/13/3995/2020/gmd-13-3995-2020.pdf
8564 8u https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/30898cc7-7e06-4d93-b9cb-8ac85321ce54
8564 8u https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3995-2020

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