Model for individual prediction of diabetes up to 5 years after gestational diabetes mellitus

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Ignell, ClaesLund University,Lunds universitet,Genomik, diabetes och endokrinologi,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,Genomics, Diabetes and Endocrinology,Lund University Research Groups,Helsingborg Hospital (author)

Model for individual prediction of diabetes up to 5 years after gestational diabetes mellitus

Article/chapterEnglish2016

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2016-03-11
Springer Science and Business Media LLC,2016

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LIBRIS-ID:oai:lup.lub.lu.se:468f7330-92d7-4b10-b087-ee7ba7ac57fe
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/468f7330-92d7-4b10-b087-ee7ba7ac57feURI
https://doi.org/10.1186/s40064-016-1953-7DOI

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Language:English
Summary in:English

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AIMS: To identify predictors of diabetes development up to 5 years after gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and to develop a prediction model for individual use.METHODS: Five years after GDM, a 75-g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) was performed in 362 women, excluding women already diagnosed with diabetes at 1- to 2-year follow-up or later (n = 45). All but 21 women had results from follow-up at 1-2 years, while 84 women were lost from that point. Predictive variables were identified by logistic regression analysis.RESULTS: Five years after GDM, 28/362 women (8 %) were diagnosed with diabetes whereas 187/362 (52 %) had normal glucose tolerance (NGT). Of the latter, 139/187 (74 %) also had NGT at 1- to 2-year follow-up. In simple regression analysis, using NGT at 1-2 years and at 5 years as the reference, diabetes at 1- to 2-year follow-up or later was clearly associated with easily assessable clinical variables, such as BMI at 1- to 2-year follow-up, 2-h OGTT glucose concentration during pregnancy, and non-European origin (P < 0.0001). A prediction model based on these variables resulting in 86 % correct classifications, with an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of 0.91 (95 % CI 0.86-0.95), was applied in a function-sheet line diagram illustrating the individual effect of weight on diabetes risk.CONCLUSIONS: The results highlight the importance of BMI as a potentially modifiable risk factor for diabetes after GDM. Our proposed prediction model performed well, and should encourage validation in other populations in future studies.

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Ekelund, MagnusLund University,Lunds universitet,Institutionen för kliniska vetenskaper, Malmö,Medicinska fakulteten,Department of Clinical Sciences, Malmö,Faculty of Medicine,Helsingborg Hospital(Swepub:lu)med-meu (author)
Anderberg, EvaLund University,Lunds universitet,Obstetrik och gynekologi, Lund,Sektion V,Institutionen för kliniska vetenskaper, Lund,Medicinska fakulteten,Obstetrics and Gynaecology (Lund),Section V,Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund,Faculty of Medicine(Swepub:lu)gyn-ean (author)
Berntorp, KerstinLund University,Lunds universitet,Genomik, diabetes och endokrinologi,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,Genomics, Diabetes and Endocrinology,Lund University Research Groups,Skåne University Hospital(Swepub:lu)endo-kbe (author)
Genomik, diabetes och endokrinologiForskargrupper vid Lunds universitet (creator_code:org_t)

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