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LIBRIS Formathandbok  (Information om MARC21)
FältnamnIndikatorerMetadata
00004593naa a2200529 4500
001oai:DiVA.org:su-92833
003SwePub
008130820s2013 | |||||||||||000 ||eng|
0247 a https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-928332 URI
0247 a https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.123092 DOI
040 a (SwePub)su
041 a engb eng
042 9 SwePub
072 7a ref2 swepub-contenttype
072 7a art2 swepub-publicationtype
1001 a Niiranen, Susau Stockholms universitet,Stockholm Resilience Centre,Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och botanik4 aut0 (Swepub:su)sniir
2451 0a Combined effects of global climate change and regional ecosystem drivers on an exploited marine food web
264 c 2013-08-23
264 1b Wiley,c 2013
338 a print2 rdacarrier
500 a AuthorCount: 9;
520 a Changes in climate, in combination with intensive exploitation of marine resources, have caused large-scale reorganizations in many of the world's marine ecosystems during the past decades. The Baltic Sea in Northern Europe is one of the systems most affected. In addition to being exposed to persistent eutrophication, intensive fishing, and one of the world's fastest rates of warming in the last two decades of the 20th century, accelerated climate change including atmospheric warming and changes in precipitation is projected for this region during the 21st century. Here, we used a new multi-model approach to project how the interaction of climate, nutrient loads and cod fishing may affect the future of the open Central Baltic Sea food web. Regionally downscaled global climate scenarios were, in combination with three nutrient load scenarios, used to drive an ensemble of three regional biogeochemical models (BGMs). An Ecopath with Ecosim food web model was then forced with the BGM results from different nutrient-climate scenarios in combination with two different cod fishing scenarios. The results showed that regional management is likely to play a major role in determining the future of the Baltic Sea ecosystem. By the end of the 21st century, for example, the combination of intensive cod fishing and high nutrient loads projected a strongly eutrophicated and sprat-dominated ecosystem, while low cod fishing in combination with low nutrient loads resulted in a cod-dominated ecosystem with eutrophication levels close to present. Also, non-linearities were observed in the sensitivity of different trophic groups to nutrient loads or fishing depending on the combination of the two. Finally, many climate variables and species biomasses were projected to levels unseen in the past. Hence, the risk for ecological surprises needs to be addressed, particularly when the results are discussed in the ecosystem-based management context.
650 7a NATURVETENSKAPx Biologix Ekologi0 (SwePub)106112 hsv//swe
650 7a NATURAL SCIENCESx Biological Sciencesx Ecology0 (SwePub)106112 hsv//eng
650 7a NATURVETENSKAPx Geovetenskap och miljövetenskapx Miljövetenskap0 (SwePub)105022 hsv//swe
650 7a NATURAL SCIENCESx Earth and Related Environmental Sciencesx Environmental Sciences0 (SwePub)105022 hsv//eng
653 a Baltic Sea
653 a climate change
653 a food web
653 a fishing
653 a eutrophication
653 a nutrient loads
653 a Ecopath with Ecosim
653 a Marine Ecology
653 a marin ekologi
7001 a Yletyinen, Johannau Stockholms universitet,Stockholm Resilience Centre,University of Olso, Norway4 aut0 (Swepub:su)joyl1498
7001 a Tomczak, Maciej T.u Stockholms universitet,Baltic Nest Institute4 aut0 (Swepub:su)mtomc
7001 a Blenckner, Thorstenu Stockholms universitet,Stockholm Resilience Centre4 aut0 (Swepub:su)tblen
7001 a Hjerne, Olleu Stockholms universitet,Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och botanik4 aut0 (Swepub:su)hjern
7001 a MacKenzie, Brian R.4 aut
7001 a Müller-Karulis, Bärbelu Stockholms universitet,Baltic Nest Institute4 aut0 (Swepub:su)bmull
7001 a Neumann, Thomas4 aut
7001 a Meier, H. E. Markusu Stockholms universitet,Meteorologiska institutionen (MISU),Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Sweden4 aut0 (Swepub:su)mmeie
7102 a Stockholms universitetb Stockholm Resilience Centre4 org
7730 t Global Change Biologyd : Wileyg 19:11, s. 3327-3342q 19:11<3327-3342x 1354-1013x 1365-2486
8564 8u https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-92833
8564 8u https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12309

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