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Sökning: WFRF:(Donges Jonathan) > (2020-2024) > Global warming over...

LIBRIS Formathandbok  (Information om MARC21)
FältnamnIndikatorerMetadata
00003279naa a2200397 4500
001oai:DiVA.org:su-214575
003SwePub
008230206s2023 | |||||||||||000 ||eng|
0247 a https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-2145752 URI
0247 a https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01545-92 DOI
040 a (SwePub)su
041 a engb eng
042 9 SwePub
072 7a ref2 swepub-contenttype
072 7a art2 swepub-publicationtype
1001 a Wunderling, Nicou Stockholms universitet,Stockholm Resilience Centre,Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany; Princeton University, USA4 aut
2451 0a Global warming overshoots increase risks of climate tipping cascades in a network model
264 c 2022-12-22
264 1b Springer Science and Business Media LLC,c 2023
338 a print2 rdacarrier
520 a Current policies and actions make it very likely, at least temporarily, to overshoot the Paris climate targets of 1.5–<2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels. If this global warming range is exceeded, potential tipping elements such as the Greenland Ice Sheet and Amazon rainforest may be at increasing risk of crossing critical thresholds. This raises the question of how much this risk is amplified by increasing overshoot magnitude and duration. Here we investigate the danger for tipping under a range of temperature overshoot scenarios using a stylized network model of four interacting climate tipping elements. Our model analysis reveals that temporary overshoots can increase tipping risks by up to 72% compared with non-overshoot scenarios, even when the long-term equilibrium temperature stabilizes within the Paris range. Our results suggest that avoiding high-end climate risks is possible only for low-temperature overshoots and if long-term temperatures stabilize at or below today’s levels of global warming.
650 7a NATURVETENSKAPx Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap0 (SwePub)1052 hsv//swe
650 7a NATURAL SCIENCESx Earth and Related Environmental Sciences0 (SwePub)1052 hsv//eng
650 7a SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAPx Social och ekonomisk geografi0 (SwePub)5072 hsv//swe
650 7a SOCIAL SCIENCESx Social and Economic Geography0 (SwePub)5072 hsv//eng
7001 a Winkelmann, Ricarda4 aut
7001 a Rockström, Johanu Stockholms universitet,Stockholm Resilience Centre,Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany4 aut0 (Swepub:su)jrock
7001 a Loriani, Sina4 aut
7001 a Armstrong McKay, David I.u Stockholms universitet,Stockholm Resilience Centre,University of Exeter, UK; Georesilience Analytics, UK4 aut0 (Swepub:su)daar3019
7001 a Ritchie, Paul D. L.4 aut
7001 a Sakschewski, Boris4 aut
7001 a Donges, Jonathan F.u Stockholms universitet,Stockholm Resilience Centre,Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany; Princeton University, USA4 aut0 (Swepub:su)jdong
7102 a Stockholms universitetb Stockholm Resilience Centre4 org
7730 t Nature Climate Changed : Springer Science and Business Media LLCg 13:1, s. 75-82q 13:1<75-82x 1758-678Xx 1758-6798
8564 8u https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-214575
8564 8u https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01545-9

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