Biological ensemble modeling to evaluate potential futures of living marine resources

↓ Direkt till sidans innehåll
↓ Direkt till sidans sekundära innehåll (sidomenyn)

Sökning: WFRF:(Neuenfeldt Stefan) > Biological ensemble...

Biological ensemble modeling to evaluate potential futures of living marine resources

Gårdmark, Anna (författare): Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences,Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet,Institutionen för akvatiska resurser,Department of Aquatic Resources

Lindegren, Martin (författare)

Neuenfeldt, Stefan (författare)

visa fler...

Blenckner, Thorsten (författare): Stockholms universitet,Baltic Nest Institute

Heikinheimo, Outi (författare)

Müller-Karulis, Barbel (författare): Stockholms universitet,Baltic Nest Institute,Institute of Food Safety, Animal Health and Environment BIOR, Latvia

Niiranen, Susa (författare): Stockholms universitet,Baltic Nest Institute

Tomczak, Maciej T. (författare): Stockholms universitet,Baltic Nest Institute

Aro, Eero (författare)

Wikström, Anders (författare): Lund University,Lunds universitet,Evolutionär ekologi,Biologiska institutionen,Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,Evolutionary ecology,Department of Biology,Faculty of Science

Moellmann, Christian (författare)

visa färre...

(creator_code:org_t)

Wiley, 2013
2013
Engelska.
Ingår i: Ecological Applications. - : Wiley. - 1051-0761 .- 1939-5582. ; 23:4, s. 742-754

Relaterad länk:: http://dx.doi.org/10...; visa fler...; https://urn.kb.se/re...; https://doi.org/10.1...; https://lup.lub.lu.s...; https://res.slu.se/i...; visa färre...

Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)

Abstract Ämnesord

Stäng

Natural resource management requires approaches to understand and handle sources of uncertainty in future responses of complex systems to human activities. Here we present one such approach, the biological ensemble modeling approach,'' using the Eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua callarias) as an example. The core of the approach is to expose an ensemble of models with different ecological assumptions to climate forcing, using multiple realizations of each climate scenario. We simulated the long-term response of cod to future fishing and climate change in seven ecological models ranging from single-species to food web models. These models were analyzed using the biological ensemble modeling approach'' by which we (1) identified a key ecological mechanism explaining the differences in simulated cod responses between models, (2) disentangled the uncertainty caused by differences in ecological model assumptions from the statistical uncertainty of future climate, and (3) identified results common for the whole model ensemble. Species interactions greatly influenced the simulated response of cod to fishing and climate, as well as the degree to which the statistical uncertainty of climate trajectories carried through to uncertainty of cod responses. Models ignoring the feedback from prey on cod showed large interannual fluctuations in cod dynamics and were more sensitive to the underlying uncertainty of climate forcing than models accounting for such stabilizing predator-prey feedbacks. Yet in all models, intense fishing prevented recovery, and climate change further decreased the cod population. Our study demonstrates how the biological ensemble modeling approach makes it possible to evaluate the relative importance of different sources of uncertainty in future species responses, as well as to seek scientific conclusions and sustainable management solutions robust to uncertainty of food web processes in the face of climate change.

Ämnesord

NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Miljövetenskap (hsv//swe)
NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Environmental Sciences (hsv//eng)
NATURVETENSKAP -- Biologi -- Ekologi (hsv//swe)
NATURAL SCIENCES -- Biological Sciences -- Ecology (hsv//eng)
NATURVETENSKAP -- Biologi (hsv//swe)
NATURAL SCIENCES -- Biological Sciences (hsv//eng)
LANTBRUKSVETENSKAPER -- Lantbruksvetenskap, skogsbruk och fiske -- Fisk- och akvakulturforskning (hsv//swe)
AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES -- Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries -- Fish and Aquacultural Science (hsv//eng)

Nyckelord

climate change
Eastern Baltic cod
environmental variation
exploitation
fisheries management
food web models
Gadus morhua callarias
model uncertainty
scenario analysis
species interactions
climate change
Eastern Baltic cod
environmental variation
exploitation
fisheries management
food web models
Gadus morhua
callarias
model uncertainty
scenario analysis
species interactions

Publikations- och innehållstyp

ref (ämneskategori)
art (ämneskategori)

Hitta via bibliotek

Ecological Applications (Sök värdpublikationen i LIBRIS)

Till lärosätets databas

Hitta mer i SwePub

Av författaren/redakt...: Gårdmark, Anna; Lindegren, Marti ...; Neuenfeldt, Stef ...; Blenckner, Thors ...; Heikinheimo, Out ...; Müller-Karulis, ...; visa fler...; Niiranen, Susa; Tomczak, Maciej ...; Aro, Eero; Wikström, Anders; Moellmann, Chris ...; visa färre...

Om ämnet

NATURVETENSKAP: NATURVETENSKAP; och Geovetenskap och ...; och Miljövetenskap

NATURVETENSKAP: NATURVETENSKAP; och Biologi; och Ekologi

NATURVETENSKAP: NATURVETENSKAP; och Biologi

LANTBRUKSVETENSKAPER: LANTBRUKSVETENSK ...; och Lantbruksvetensk ...; och Fisk och akvakul ...

Artiklar i publikationen: Ecological Appli ...

Av lärosätet: Stockholms universitet; Lunds universitet; Sveriges Lantbruksuniversitet

Sök utanför SwePub

Sök vidare i:: Google; Google Book Search; Google Scholar

Kungliga biblioteket hanterar dina personuppgifter i enlighet med EU:s dataskyddsförordning (2018), GDPR. Läs mer om hur det funkar här.
Så här hanterar KB dina uppgifter vid användning av denna tjänst.

LIBRIS.kb.se