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LIBRIS Formathandbok  (Information om MARC21)
FältnamnIndikatorerMetadata
00006074naa a2200829 4500
001oai:lup.lub.lu.se:09e079c3-d0b6-444a-bc29-082728d0eeb6
003SwePub
008161010s2017 | |||||||||||000 ||eng|
0247 a https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/09e079c3-d0b6-444a-bc29-082728d0eeb62 URI
0247 a https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.134472 DOI
040 a (SwePub)lu
041 a engb eng
042 9 SwePub
072 7a art2 swepub-publicationtype
072 7a ref2 swepub-contenttype
1001 a Alexander, Peteru Scotland’s Rural College,University of Edinburgh4 aut
2451 0a Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections
264 c 2016-08-20
264 1b Wiley,c 2017
520 a Understanding uncertainties in land cover projections is critical to investigating land-based climate mitigation policies, assessing the potential of climate adaptation strategies and quantifying the impacts of land cover change on the climate system. Here, we identify and quantify uncertainties in global and European land cover projections over a diverse range of model types and scenarios, extending the analysis beyond the agro-economic models included in previous comparisons. The results from 75 simulations over 18 models are analysed and show a large range in land cover area projections, with the highest variability occurring in future cropland areas. We demonstrate systematic differences in land cover areas associated with the characteristics of the modelling approach, which is at least as great as the differences attributed to the scenario variations. The results lead us to conclude that a higher degree of uncertainty exists in land use projections than currently included in climate or earth system projections. To account for land use uncertainty, it is recommended to use a diverse set of models and approaches when assessing the potential impacts of land cover change on future climate. Additionally, further work is needed to better understand the assumptions driving land use model results and reveal the causes of uncertainty in more depth, to help reduce model uncertainty and improve the projections of land cover.
650 7a NATURVETENSKAPx Geovetenskap och miljövetenskapx Klimatforskning0 (SwePub)105012 hsv//swe
650 7a NATURAL SCIENCESx Earth and Related Environmental Sciencesx Climate Research0 (SwePub)105012 hsv//eng
650 7a LANTBRUKSVETENSKAPERx Annan lantbruksvetenskapx Miljö- och naturvårdsvetenskap0 (SwePub)405042 hsv//swe
650 7a AGRICULTURAL SCIENCESx Other Agricultural Sciencesx Environmental Sciences related to Agriculture and Land-use0 (SwePub)405042 hsv//eng
653 a Cropland
653 a Land cover
653 a Land use
653 a Model inter-comparison
653 a Uncertainty
7001 a Prestele, Reinhardu Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam4 aut
7001 a Verburg, Peter H.u Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam4 aut
7001 a Arneth, Almutu Karlsruhe Institute of Technology4 aut0 (Swepub:lu)nate-aar
7001 a Baranzelli, Claudiau European Commission, Italy4 aut
7001 a Batista e Silva, Filipeu European Commission, Italy4 aut
7001 a Brown, Calumu University of Edinburgh4 aut
7001 a Butler, Adamu Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland4 aut
7001 a Calvin, Katherineu Pacific Northwest National Laboratory4 aut
7001 a Dendoncker, Nicolasu University of Namur4 aut
7001 a Doelman, Jonathan C.u Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency; Bilthoven4 aut
7001 a Dunford, Robertu University of Oxford4 aut
7001 a Engstrom, Kerstinu Lund University,Lunds universitet,Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap,Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science,Faculty of Science4 aut0 (Swepub:lu)nate-kba
7001 a Eitelberg, Davidu Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam4 aut
7001 a Fujimori, Shinichirou National Institute for Environmental Studies4 aut
7001 a Harrison, Paula A.u Lancaster University4 aut
7001 a Hasegawa, Tomokou National Institute for Environmental Studies4 aut
7001 a Havlik, Petru International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis4 aut
7001 a Holzhauer, Saschau University of Edinburgh4 aut
7001 a Humpenöder, Florianu Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research4 aut
7001 a Jacobs-Crisioni, Chrisu European Commission, Italy4 aut
7001 a Jain, Atul K.u University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign4 aut
7001 a Krisztin, Tamásu International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis4 aut
7001 a Kyle, Pageu Pacific Northwest National Laboratory4 aut
7001 a Lavalle, Carlou European Commission, Italy4 aut
7001 a Lenton, Timu University of Exeter4 aut
7001 a Liu, Jiayiu Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland4 aut
7001 a Meiyappan, Prasanthu University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign4 aut
7001 a Popp, Alexanderu Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research4 aut
7001 a Powell, Tomu University of Exeter4 aut
7001 a Sands, Ronald D.u United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)4 aut
7001 a Schaldach, Rüdigeru University of Kassel4 aut
7001 a Stehfest, Elkeu Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency; Bilthoven4 aut
7001 a Steinbuks, Jevgenijsu World Bank (WB)4 aut
7001 a Tabeau, Andrzeju Wageningen University4 aut
7001 a van Meijl, Hansu Wageningen University4 aut
7001 a Wise, Marshall A.u Pacific Northwest National Laboratory4 aut
7001 a Rounsevell, Mark D A4 aut
7102 a Scotland’s Rural Collegeb University of Edinburgh4 org
7730 t Global Change Biologyd : Wileyg 23:2, s. 767-781q 23:2<767-781x 1354-1013
8564 u http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13447y FULLTEXT
8564 u http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/515511/1/N515511PP.pdf
8564 8u https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/09e079c3-d0b6-444a-bc29-082728d0eeb6
8564 8u https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13447

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