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Exploring Global Climate Policy Futures and Their Representation in Integrated Assessment Models

Hickmann, Thomas (författare)
Lund University,Lunds universitet,BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate,Centrum för miljö- och klimatvetenskap (CEC),Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,Statsvetenskapliga institutionen,Samhällsvetenskapliga institutioner och centrumbildningar,Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten,Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC),Faculty of Science,Department of Political Science,Departments of Administrative, Economic and Social Sciences,Faculty of Social Sciences
Bertram, Christoph (författare)
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Biermann, Frank (författare)
Lund University,Lunds universitet,LUCSUS,Samhällsvetenskapliga institutioner och centrumbildningar,Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten,LUCSUS (Lund University Centre for Sustainability Studies),Departments of Administrative, Economic and Social Sciences,Faculty of Social Sciences
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Brutschin, Elina (författare)
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Kriegler, Elmar (författare)
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Livingston, Jasmine E. (författare)
Lund University,Lunds universitet,BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate,Centrum för miljö- och klimatvetenskap (CEC),Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC),Faculty of Science
Pianta, Silvia (författare)
European University Institute
Riahi, Keywan (författare)
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Van Ruijven, Bas (författare)
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Van Vuuren, Detlef (författare)
Utrecht University
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 (creator_code:org_t)
2022-09-21
2022
Engelska.
Ingår i: Politics and Governance. - : Cogitatio. - 2183-2463. ; 10:3, s. 171-185
Relaterad länk:
https://www.cogitati... (free)
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http://dx.doi.org/10... (free)
https://lup.lub.lu.s...
https://doi.org/10.1...
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  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
Abstract Ämnesord
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  • The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, paved the way for a new hybrid global climate governance architecture with both bottom-up and top-down elements. While governments can choose individual climate goals and actions, a global stocktake and a ratcheting-up mechanism have been put in place with the overall aim to ensure that collective efforts will prevent increasing adverse impacts of climate change. Integrated assessment models show that current combined climate commitments and policies of national governments fall short of keeping global warming to 1.5 °C or 2 °C above preindustrial levels. Although major greenhouse gas emitters, such as China, the European Union, India, the United States under the Biden administration, and several other countries, have made new pledges to take more ambitious climate action, it is highly uncertain where global climate policy is heading. Scenarios in line with long-term temperature targets typically assume a simplistic and hardly realistic level of harmonization of climate policies across countries. Against this backdrop, this article develops four archetypes for the further evolution of the global climate governance architecture and matches them with existing sets of scenarios developed by integrated assessment models. By these means, the article identifies knowledge gaps in the current scenario literature and discusses possible research avenues to explore the pre-conditions for successful coordination of national policies towards achieving the long-term target stipulated in the Paris Agreement.

Ämnesord

SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAP  -- Statsvetenskap (hsv//swe)
SOCIAL SCIENCES  -- Political Science (hsv//eng)
SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAP  -- Annan samhällsvetenskap -- Tvärvetenskapliga studier inom samhällsvetenskap (hsv//swe)
SOCIAL SCIENCES  -- Other Social Sciences -- Social Sciences Interdisciplinary (hsv//eng)

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