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Real-Time Forecast of Catastrophic Landslides via Dragon-King Detection
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- Lei, Qinghua (author)
- Uppsala universitet,Luft-, vatten- och landskapslära,Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Dept Earth Sci, Zurich, Switzerland
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- Sornette, Didier (author)
- Southern Univ Sci & Technol, Inst Risk Anal Predict & Management, Acad Adv Interdisciplinary Studies, Shenzhen, Peoples R China.
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- Yang, Haonan (author)
- Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Dept Earth Sci, Zurich, Switzerland.
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- (creator_code:org_t)
- American Geophysical Union (AGU), 2023
- 2023
- English.
- In: Geophysical Research Letters. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 0094-8276 .- 1944-8007. ; 50:6
- Journal article (peer-reviewed)
Abstract
Subject headings
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- Catastrophic landslides characterized by runaway slope failures remain difficult to predict. Here, we develop a physics-based framework to prospectively assess slope failure potential. Our method builds upon the physics of extreme events in natural systems: the extremes so-called "dragon-kings" (e.g., slope tertiary creeps prior to failure) exhibit statistically different properties than other smaller-sized events (e.g., slope secondary creeps). We develop statistical tools to detect the emergence of dragon-kings during landslide evolution, with the secondary-to-tertiary creep transition quantitatively captured. We construct a phase diagram characterizing the detectability of dragon-kings against "black-swans" and informing on whether the slope evolves toward a catastrophic or slow landslide. We test our method on synthetic and real data sets, demonstrating how it might have been used to forecast three representative historical landslides. Our method can in principle considerably reduce the number of false alarms and identify with high confidence the presence of true hazards of catastrophic landslides.
Subject headings
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Multidisciplinär geovetenskap (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Geosciences, Multidisciplinary (hsv//eng)
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Geofysik (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Geophysics (hsv//eng)
Keyword
- landslides
- catastrophic failure
- prediction
- dragon-king
- phase diagram
- risk
Publication and Content Type
- ref (subject category)
- art (subject category)
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- Loew, Simon
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