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A dynamic stochastic model for evaluating congestion and crowding effects in transit systems

Cats, Oded (författare)
KTH,Transportplanering, ekonomi och teknik,Delft University of Technology, Netherlands,KTH, Transportplanering, ekonomi och teknik
West, Jens (författare)
KTH,Transportplanering, ekonomi och teknik,KTH, Transportplanering, ekonomi och teknik
Eliasson, Jonas (författare)
KTH,Transportplanering, ekonomi och teknik,KTH, Transportplanering, ekonomi och teknik
 (creator_code:org_t)
Elsevier, 2016
2016
Engelska.
Ingår i: Transportation Research Part B. - : Elsevier. - 0191-2615 .- 1879-2367. ; 89, s. 43-57
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
Abstract Ämnesord
Stäng  
  • One of the most common motivations for public transport investments is to reduce congestion and increase capacity. Public transport congestion leads to crowding discomfort, denied boardings and lower service reliability. However, transit assignment models and appraisal methodologies usually do not account for the dynamics of public transport congestion and crowding and thus potentially underestimate the related benefits. This study develops a method to capture the benefits of increased capacity by using a dynamic and stochastic transit assignment model. Using an agent-based public transport simulation model, we dynamically model the evolution of network reliability and on-board crowding. The model is embedded in a comprehensive framework for project appraisal.A case study of a metro extension that partially replaces an overloaded bus network in Stockholm demonstrates that congestion effects may account for a substantial share of the expected benefits. A cost-benefit analysis based on a conventional static model will miss more than a third of the benefits. This suggests that failure to represent dynamic congestion effects may substantially underestimate the benefits of projects, especially if they are primarily intended to increase capacity rather than to reduce travel times.

Ämnesord

TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER  -- Samhällsbyggnadsteknik -- Transportteknik och logistik (hsv//swe)
ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY  -- Civil Engineering -- Transport Systems and Logistics (hsv//eng)

Nyckelord

Agent-based simulation
Capacity
Cost-benefit analysis
Dynamic congestion
Transit assignment
Cost benefit analysis
Cost effectiveness
Mass transportation
Stochastic systems
Travel time
Agent based simulation
Crowding effects
Network reliability
Public transport
Service reliability
Transit systems
Stochastic models

Publikations- och innehållstyp

ref (ämneskategori)
art (ämneskategori)

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