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The consolidated European synthesis of CO2emissions and removals for the European Union and United Kingdom : 1990-2018

Petrescu, Ana Maria Roxana (author)
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
McGrath, Matthew J. (author)
French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission (CEA)
Andrew, Robbie M. (author)
CICERO Center for International Climate Research
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Peylin, Philippe (author)
French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission (CEA)
Peters, Glen P. (author)
CICERO Center for International Climate Research
Ciais, Philippe (author)
French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission (CEA)
Broquet, Gregoire (author)
French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission (CEA)
Tubiello, Francesco N. (author)
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Gerbig, Christoph (author)
Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry
Pongratz, Julia (author)
Ludwig-Maximilian University of Munich,Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
Janssens-Maenhout, Greet (author)
European Commission Joint Research Centre, Brussels
Grassi, Giacomo (author)
European Commission Joint Research Centre, Brussels
Nabuurs, Gert Jan (author)
Wageningen University
Regnier, Pierre (author)
Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB)
Lauerwald, Ronny (author)
University of Paris-Saclay,Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB)
Kuhnert, Matthias (author)
University of Aberdeen
Balkovič, Juraj (author)
Comenius University,International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Schelhaas, Mart Jan (author)
Wageningen University
van der Gon, Hugo A.C.Denier (author)
Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research (Utrecht)
Solazzo, Efisio (author)
European Commission Joint Research Centre, Brussels
Qiu, Chunjing (author)
French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission (CEA)
Pilli, Roberto (author)
European Commission Joint Research Centre, Brussels
Konovalov, Igor B. (author)
Institute of Applied Physics, RAS
Houghton, Richard A. (author)
Günther, Dirk (author)
German Federal Environment Agency (Umweltbundesamt)
Perugini, Lucia (author)
Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change
Crippa, Monica (author)
Wageningen University
Ganzenmüller, Raphael (author)
Ludwig-Maximilian University of Munich
Luijkx, Ingrid T. (author)
Wageningen University
Smith, Pete (author)
University of Aberdeen
Munassar, Saqr (author)
Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry
Thompson, Rona L. (author)
Norwegian Institute for Air Research
Conchedda, Giulia (author)
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Monteil, Guillaume (author)
Lund University,Lunds universitet,MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system,Centrum för miljö- och klimatvetenskap (CEC),Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap,Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC),Faculty of Science,Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science
Scholze, Marko (author)
Lund University,Lunds universitet,MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system,Centrum för miljö- och klimatvetenskap (CEC),Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap,Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC),Faculty of Science,Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science
Karstens, Ute (author)
Lund University,Lunds universitet,Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap,Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science,Faculty of Science,ICOS ERIC Carbon Portal
Brockmann, Patrick (author)
French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission (CEA)
Dolman, Albertus Johannes (author)
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
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 (creator_code:org_t)
2021-05-28
2021
English.
In: Earth System Science Data. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1866-3508 .- 1866-3516. ; 13:5, s. 2363-2406
  • Research review (peer-reviewed)
Abstract Subject headings
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  • Reliable quantification of the sources and sinks of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), including that of their trends and uncertainties, is essential to monitoring the progress in mitigating anthropogenic emissions under the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement. This study provides a consolidated synthesis of estimates for all anthropogenic and natural sources and sinks of CO2 for the European Union and UK (EU27 + UK), derived from a combination of state-of-the-art bottom-up (BU) and top-down (TD) data sources and models. Given the wide scope of the work and the variety of datasets involved, this study focuses on identifying essential questions which need to be answered to properly understand the differences between various datasets, in particular with regards to the less-well-characterized fluxes from managed ecosystems. The work integrates recent emission inventory data, process-based ecosystem model results, data-driven sector model results and inverse modeling estimates over the period 1990-2018. BU and TD products are compared with European national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs) reported under the UNFCCC in 2019, aiming to assess and understand the differences between approaches. For the uncertainties in NGHGIs, we used the standard deviation obtained by varying parameters of inventory calculations, reported by the member states following the IPCC Guidelines. Variation in estimates produced with other methods, like atmospheric inversion models (TD) or spatially disaggregated inventory datasets (BU), arises from diverse sources including within-model uncertainty related to parameterization as well as structural differences between models. In comparing NGHGIs with other approaches, a key source of uncertainty is that related to different system boundaries and emission categories (CO2 fossil) and the use of different land use definitions for reporting emissions from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) activities (CO2 land). At the EU27 + UK level, the NGHGI (2019) fossil CO2 emissions (including cement production) account for 2624 Tg CO2 in 2014 while all the other seven bottom-up sources are consistent with the NGHGIs and report a mean of 2588 (± 463 Tg CO2). The inversion reports 2700 Tg CO2 (± 480 Tg CO2), which is well in line with the national inventories. Over 2011-2015, the CO2 land sources and sinks from NGHGI estimates report-90 Tg C yr-1 ± 30 Tg C yr-1 while all other BU approaches report a mean sink of-98 Tg C yr-1 (± 362 Tg of C from dynamic global vegetation models only). For the TD model ensemble results, we observe a much larger spread for regional inversions (i.e., mean of 253 Tg C yr-1 ± 400 Tg C yr-1). This concludes that (a) current independent approaches are consistent with NGHGIs and (b) their uncertainty is too large to allow a verification because of model differences and probably also because of the definition of "CO2 flux"obtained from different approaches. The referenced datasets related to figures are visualized.

Subject headings

NATURVETENSKAP  -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap (hsv//swe)
NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences (hsv//eng)

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