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Modelling the spread of penicillin-resistant Streptococcus pneumoniae in day-care and evaluation of intervention.

Andersson, Mikael (author)
Stockholms universitet,Matematiska institutionen,Matematisk statistik
Ekdahl, Karl (author)
Karolinska Institutet
Mölstad, Sigvard, 1949- (author)
Linköpings universitet,Hälsouniversitetet,Allmänmedicin
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Persson, Kristina (author)
Hansson, Hans Bertil (author)
Giesecke, Johan (author)
Karolinska Institutet
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 (creator_code:org_t)
Wiley, 2005
2005
English.
In: Statistics in Medicine. - : Wiley. - 0277-6715 .- 1097-0258. ; 24:23, s. 3593-607
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)
Abstract Subject headings
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  • In 1995, a disease control and intervention project was initiated in Malmöhus county in southern Sweden to limit the spread of penicillin-resistant pneumococci. Since most of the carriers of pneumococci are preschool children, and since most of the spread is believed to take place in day-care, a mathematical model, in the form of a stochastic process, for the spread in a day-care group was constructed. Effects of seasonal variation and size of the day-care group were particularly considered. The model was then used for comparing results from computer simulations without and with intervention. Results indicate that intervention is highly effective in day-care groups with more than ten children during the second half of the year.

Subject headings

NATURVETENSKAP  -- Matematik -- Sannolikhetsteori och statistik (hsv//swe)
NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Mathematics -- Probability Theory and Statistics (hsv//eng)

Keyword

Biometry
Child Day Care Centers
Child; Preschool
Computer Simulation
Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control/statistics & numerical data
Humans
Likelihood Functions
Models; Statistical
Penicillin Resistance
Pneumococcal Infections/epidemiology/prevention & control/*transmission
Seasons
Stochastic Processes
Streptococcus pneumoniae/drug effects
Sweden/epidemiology
Mathematical statistics
Matematisk statistik
SOCIAL SCIENCES

Publication and Content Type

ref (subject category)
art (subject category)

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