Truth claims and explanatory claims : An ontological typology of futures studies

• Classifications of futures research are usually based on epistemological differences, but we complete these with ontological considerations. The article presents a typology of forecasts, i.e. statements on future events or states. It has two dimensions, truth claim and explanatory claim; each dimension has two values, making the claim or not making the claim. The four outcomes are then: Forecasts which make both truth claims and explanatory claims (predictions); which make truth claims, but not explanatory claims (prognoses); which make explanatory claims, but not truth claims (science fiction); and which make neither truth claims nor explanatory claims (utopias or dystopias). We regard each outcome as an ideal type, against which forecasts can be measured. We illustrate the use of the typology by presenting an example of each outcome

Ämnesord

SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAP  -- Annan samhällsvetenskap -- Arbetslivsstudier (hsv//swe)

SOCIAL SCIENCES  -- Other Social Sciences -- Work Sciences (hsv//eng)

Nyckelord

Forecast

prediction

prognosis

science fiction

utopia

Working Life Science

Arbetsvetenskap

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